Arbitrage Plan: Buy No shares for most low-probability options (e.g., Satya Nadella, Keir Starmer, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, etc.). Plan Description: Given the approaching end of the month and the lack of official schedules, the No prices for many ca...

With less than 5 days remaining in March, time decay is the absolute dominant factor. Due to the lac...

This is a hybrid market blending serious geopolitics (Xi, Putin), macroeconomics (Powell), and pop culture (MrBeast). While 'presidential meetings' are standard political fare, the eclectic range of options—from dictators to YouTubers to a hypothetical Pope—adds significant novelty and entertainment value.

This event carries significant macro hedging value. A meeting with Jerome Powell would be interpreted as political pressure on the Fed, impacting US 10Y Yields and the S&P 500 due to concerns over central bank independence. Meetings with Putin or MBS directly influence Crude Oil and geopolitical risk premiums. Interactions with Musk, Nadella, or Altman serve as signals for tech regulation and AI policy, acting as catalysts for tickers like TSLA and MSFT.

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, Sam Altman's price rebounded from 14.5c to 17c, and Andy Jassy's price rebounded from 29.5c to 31.5c, indicating that capital is still making last-minute gambles among tech executive candidates as the month ends. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Keir Starmer's price plummeted from 41c to 4c. Reason: The earlier rumors of a surprise visit by the UK Prime Minister to Mar-a-Lago failed to materialize or gain official confirmation over several days, leading to a massive exit of speculative capital. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Dario Amodei's price crashed from 33.5c to 2.5c, and Satya Nadella's dropped from 14.5c to 3.4c, indicating that market expectations for a large-scale AI/tech summit hosted by Trump in March have completely collapsed or the event is assumed delayed. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Sam Altman's price experienced a rollercoaster, dropping from 32.5c to 4c before rebounding to 14c, reflecting last-minute capital rotation and gambling among tech executive candidates. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, Dario Amodei's price plummeted from 33.5c to 5c. Reason: Market expectations for his attendance at Trump's potential tech summit cooled sharply, with capital likely rotating to more certain candidates. March 21, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Mark Zuckerberg's price dropped from 32.5c to 20c. Reason: Market capital appears to be rotating out of the Meta CEO and consolidating into Amazon (Jassy) and AI startups (Amodei/Altman), implying a shift in rumors regarding the guest list for the potential Tech Summit. March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, Keir Starmer's price surged from 31c to 49c before retracing to 40.5c. Reason: Rumors of a surprise UK PM visit to Mar-a-Lago triggered a speculative frenzy, which cooled off due to a lack of official confirmation. March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Sundar Pichai and Keir Starmer previously surged due to capital rotation out of the failed Xi Jinping thesis.

Based on the latest meteorological forecast models on the settlement day, the high temperature at Mi...

Between March 25 and March 27, 2026, the price for 82-83°F surged from 28.5c to 53.5c as approaching the settlement day caused meteorological models to converge more precisely on this temperature range. Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price for 84-85°F dropped significantly from 28.5c to 13.5c as weather forecasts ruled out anomalous heat. Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price for 82-83°F surged from 17c to 31.5c before settling at 28.5c as forecasted temperatures converged on this range. Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price for 71°F or below crashed from 24.5c to 0.5c as the possibility of a cold front was eliminated.

As the target date approaches, the latest meteorological forecasting models (including Wunderground)...

Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 38c to 6.5c as approaching weather forecasts ruled out anomalous high temperatures. Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of '13°C' surged from 8.5c to 24.5c, reflecting the convergence of the latest prediction models toward a cooler expected temperature (~13°C-14°C). Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price of '15°C' fell from 35.5c to 17.5c before recovering to 22.5c, as short-term weather models fluctuated between 13°C and 16°C, causing capital reallocation among adjacent options. Between March 23 and March 24, 2026, '16°C or higher' spiked to 38c before settling at 20.5c, driven by short-term forecasts indicating an anomalous rise to 61°F. Between March 23 and March 24, 2026, '14°C' rose from 14.5c to 26c and eventually stabilized around 20c, reflecting a market consensus as forecasts gradually converged toward the median.

With only about 5.5 hours left until expiration, market prices are highly concentrated on 15°C and 1...

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of 15°C surged from 0.245c to 0.495c as weather forecast data highly converged on 15°C with the settlement time approaching, significantly increasing market certainty. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of 17°C plummeted from 0.24c to 0.06c, as the likelihood of reaching 17°C was ruled out by the latest meteorological data close to the day. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 16°C surged from 0.18c to 0.335c before settling at 0.3c, reflecting strengthened expectations of weather forecasts converging on this temperature range. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 12°C plummeted from 0.165c to 0.011c, and 19°C plummeted from 0.155c to 0.035c. As the date approaches, weather forecast uncertainty decreases, and the market quickly prices out the probabilities of extreme low and high temperatures.

According to the latest Wunderground weather forecast, the high temperature for Wellington on March ...

This is a typical niche weather prediction market. While routine for Wellington locals or meteorology enthusiasts, forecasting the specific daily high for a specific Southern Hemisphere city is relatively exotic/niche for the average global prediction market participant, compared to elections or major financial events.

March 26, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of 21°C surged significantly from 23c to 58.5c, while 22°C plummeted from 44c to 22.5c. The reason is that as the resolution day approaches, updated weather forecast models adjusted the expected high temperature downwards from a hotter bracket, locking it in around 21°C. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 22°C surged from 16.5c to 29c as the approaching resolution date brought more certainty to the early weather models predicting this higher range. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 20°C initially spiked from 16.5c to 30.5c (on Mar 24) before retreating back to 16.5c, reflecting rapid market swings due to minor tweaks in forecast models.

There is a noticeable divergence. Wunderground's forecast indicates a high of 68°F (exactly 20°C) for March 27 [3, 10], yet the prediction market prices 21°C at 58.5c, much higher than 20°C at 12.5c. This may be due to traders relying on alternative meteorological sources or carrying over the warmer trend (70°F) from the previous day, having not yet fully priced in the latest official forecast update.