Betting on the exact highest temperature (to the whole degree) of a specific city on a given day is a very niche and novelty market. Ordinary people rarely think about or forecast such highly specific meteorological outcomes.

This is a prediction market targeting the specific high temperature of a single day in Chengdu. Aside from local residents or specialized weather derivative traders, the general public rarely thinks about or predicts this specific data point, giving it a moderate level of novelty and exoticism.

Current market prices imply a high temperature of 25°C to 26°C, but most weather forecast platforms (such as Google and AccuWeather data) predict a high between 23°C and 24°C. Market participants may be pricing in urban heat island effects or an upward trend in temperatures before forecast updates.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: Prices for 19°C and 20°C surged significantly, with 20°C jumping from 16c to over 40c, while 22°C plunged from 25c to 9c. This is due to real-time weather forecasts adjusting the expected high temperature downward to the 19°C-21°C range as the day unfolded. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Prices for 21°C and 22°C saw increases of over 10c, as earlier weather forecasts predicted a stronger warming trend for May 3.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 73c to 94c, driven by its sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and increasing market confidence as the resolution date approaches. Concurrently, other competing models (e.g., claude-opus-4-7-thinking, gemini-3.1-pro-preview) saw their prices plummet by more than 10c down to near 1c, reflecting their fading chances of taking the top spot.