April 15, 2026 (00:18 - 22:58) - The price for '24°C or higher' surged continuously from 16.95c to a peak of 56.35c, driven by updated near-term Korean weather forecasts indicating unusually high temperatures in Incheon for April 16, with expectations reaching 24-26°C. April 15, 2026 (00:18 - 13:13) - Prices for lower temperature options such as '21°C' experienced sharp declines, dropping from 13.5c down to 5c, reflecting the upward shift in forecasted temperatures and eliminating colder outcomes.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 13.5c to 1.6c, because as the target date approached, the forecast became more accurate, confirming the high temperature will be in a higher range (27°C and above).

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of '25°C or higher' surged from 15.5c to 51c, likely because some traders mistakenly traded based on the 'feels like' temperature (which is forecasted around 24/25°C) instead of the actual thermometer reading. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of '23°C' dropped from 28.5c to 12.5c, reflecting liquidity draining towards the higher temperature options.

There is a severe divergence between market pricing and professional weather forecasts. The latest forecasts from Wunderground and Accuweather show highs maxing out at 23°C (73°F), yet the prediction market heavily favors 24°C and 25°C+. The most likely reason is that traders are confusing the high-humidity 'feels like' temperature (Feels like 75°F/24°C+) with the actual physical air temperature used for resolution.

This is a standard weather prediction market. While checking the weather is a common daily routine, betting on the precise daily high temperature bracket at a specific weather station is a somewhat niche and novelty-driven market.

From April 15, 2026, 00:13 to April 16, 2026, 01:08, the price of 19°C rose from 25.5c to 40.5c, peaking at 47c at 11:03 on April 15, as weather forecasts converged and confirmed 19°C as the most likely high temperature as the date approached. From April 15, 2026, 00:13 to April 16, 2026, 01:08, the price of 17°C dropped from 17.5c to 5.15c, as short-term weather forecasts ruled out the probability of a lower high temperature.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 16°C option surged from 23c to 43.5c, as updated meteorological models narrowed the temperature forecast range, solidifying its likelihood. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 18°C option plummeted from 26c to 7.5c, because the latest forecasts largely ruled out the possibility of temperatures reaching 18°C or higher.