There is a significant divergence between the prediction market and current weather forecasts. The option for 13°C is trading at an unusually high 35.5c, while nearly all mainstream forecasts predict a high of around 16°C to 17°C for Warsaw on April 18. This disconnect may occur because some traders are relying on historical April monthly averages (which is around 13°C) rather than updating their positions based on the latest 10-day forecasts.