Verify the update status of the Wunderground Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) weather station data to confirm if there is any risk of data outage or delayed updates upon resolution on April 29.

AI-powered analysis for: Verify the update status of the Wunderground Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) weather station data to confirm if there is any risk of data outage or delayed updates upon resolution on April 29.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search historical weather data for Warsaw to calculate the actual frequency of the highest temperature on April 29 falling into each specific bracket (e.g., 15°C or higher, 5°C or below) over the past decade.

AI-powered analysis for: Search historical weather data for Warsaw to calculate the actual frequency of the highest temperature on April 29 falling into each specific bracket (e.g., 15°C or higher, 5°C or below) over the past decade.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume (around $141) of this weather prediction market, how can you formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy across the temperature brackets' deep order books to catch potential mispricing or sudden panic selling?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume (around $141) of this weather prediction market, how can you formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy across the temperature brackets' deep order books to catch potential mispricing or sudden panic selling?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 29?

Weather|$10.3k Vol|

19 hrs 44 mins

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 29? - AI Found +25¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.27 06:09

Top Undervalued

+25¢

9°C(No)

+20¢

10°C(No)

+19.5¢

8°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 29? AI analysis: • +25¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecast data, the expected high temperature for Warsaw, Poland on A...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

9°C

YesNo

50¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+25¢

10°C

YesNo

30¢

70¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+20¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Predicting the exact high temperature in a specific city on a given day is a standard weather prediction market, but for the general public not living there or trading weather derivatives, it is a rather niche and uncommon topic.

Divergence

The implied probabilities for 10°C and 11°C on Polymarket are relatively high (around 33.5% each). However, the latest meteorological forecasts predict a high of only around 8°C for Warsaw on April 29. This divergence indicates that the prediction market has not yet priced in the latest weather forecast updates, or that bettors expect meteorological models to revise the temperatures upwards closer to the date. There is a significant pricing discrepancy currently.