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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
14°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
16°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
8 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of 9:15 AM Warsaw time, the temperature is approximately 7°C. The Google (IBM/Wunderground data source) forecast predicts a high of 14°C with 'mostly cloudy' conditions. Since Wunderground is the resolution source, its forecast model carries the highest weight. Given the current warming trajectory and cloud cover expectation, 14°C is the strongest candidate. The market currently has a heavy heat bias (15°C at 36.5c) while severely underpricing the risk of cloud cover stalling the warm-up (13°C at only 3.5c). Assuming a normal distribution around 14°C, 13°C and 15°C should be more symmetrically priced, indicating 13°C is significantly undervalued while 15°C is overpriced.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, prices for '12°C' and '13°C' crashed from ~24c to ~3c, while '16°C or higher' also fell from 36c to 8c. The reason is that as the target date (March 18) arrived, weather models and real-time observations eliminated extreme divergences, confirming 14°C-15°C as the core range. This caused capital previously allocated to cooler (12-13°C) and much hotter (16°C+) scenarios to consolidate aggressively into the median values.
Divergence
Market pricing exhibits extreme asymmetry: while the consensus forecast (Google/IBM) is anchored at 14°C, the market assigns a far higher probability to 15°C (36.5%) than to 13°C (3.5%). This distribution suggests the market is betting heavily on 'sunny' conditions driving extra heat, while completely discounting the risk of 'mostly cloudy' conditions stalling the temperature rise, creating a divergence from standard meteorological error distributions.
