All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
13°C or higher
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
3°C or below
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core resolution source (Wunderground/The Weather Company) currently forecasts a high of 54°F (approx. 12.2°C) for Warsaw on March 19. While Warsaw experienced warm temperatures (15°C) on the 17th, forecasts indicate a cold front arriving by the 20th (dropping to 8°C), making the 19th a transition day. Google Weather also aligns with a 12°C high. Although the market favors '13°C or higher' likely due to a persistence bias from the recent warmth, the statistical forecast of 12.2°C falls squarely within the '12°C' resolution band. Given the risk of the cold front accelerating, 12°C remains the single most probable outcome, suggesting the market is slightly overvaluing the 13°C+ option.
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Exotics
This is a specific daily weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on a specific temperature range for a specific city on a specific date is a niche market. It is less mainstream than elections or sports but not extremely bizarre.
Movers
From March 16 to March 17, 2026, the price of '13°C or higher' surged from 27c to a peak of 53c (settling at 49c), while '10°C' and '11°C' crashed from ~26c/27c to single digits/low teens. The reason was the realization of warmer-than-expected actual temperatures on March 17 (~15°C), prompting weather models to push back the arrival of the cold front, causing market sentiment to shift aggressively from a 'cool transition' to a 'warm persistence' outlook.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream weather sources (Google/TWC) explicitly forecast a high of 12°C (54°F) for March 19, which directly points to the '12°C' outcome. However, the prediction market prices '13°C or higher' as the clear favorite (~50c vs 38c for 12°C). This indicates traders are betting on temperatures outperforming the forecast by at least 0.3°C-0.8°C, likely driven by recency bias from Warsaw's warmer-than-expected conditions earlier in the week.
