All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
11°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
14°C or higher
YesNo
4°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.19 07:40 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Mainstream weather forecasts (Google/Wunderground, Onet, Meteoprog) consistently predict the highest...
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Exotics
This is a weather prediction market for a specific temperature in a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is common, as a betting instrument, it falls into the 'Novelty' niche, lacking the broad mass appeal of major political elections or sports events.
Divergence
Severe divergence. Market prices imply a combined probability of over 80% for 6°C, 11°C, and 12°C, while all mainstream meteorological forecasts point to a narrow range of 9°C-10°C. The market pricing completely ignores scientific forecast data, exhibiting a chaotic 'shotgun' betting pattern.
