All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
14°C or higher
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
4°C or below
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
6 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the forecast window narrows to 3 days, weather models (like GFS and ECMWF) for Warsaw on March 21 have converged, locking the core temperature range between 10°C and 12°C. Market data shows a significant surge in '10°C' and '11°C' prices over the last 24 hours, consistent with a slight cooling correction in the forecasts. Despite previous interference from warm front expectations keeping '14°C or higher' artificially high, the latest data suggests extreme heat is highly unlikely. Thus, fair value is heavily concentrated on 10°C (28%), 11°C (35%), and 12°C (20%), with extreme tail options holding near-zero value.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '11°C' surged from 10c to 29c, and '10°C' rose from 10c to 24.5c. The reason is the increasing consistency of weather models as the date approaches, locking the high-probability range around 10-11 degrees.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, '14°C or higher' experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 27c to 7c (10:10 AM) before irrationally rebounding to 23c. The reason for the crash was a reaction to the delayed warm front, while the rebound likely reflects illiquidity or noise from outlier models.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket currently prices '14°C or higher' at 23c and '13°C' at 18.5c, implying a >40% probability of temperatures exceeding 13°C. However, mainstream forecasts (Wunderground/AccuWeather) currently show a median high of only 10°C-11°C. Market prices are lagging significantly behind meteorological data or are distorted by irrational hedging.
