All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
15°C or higher
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
5°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the simulated date of March 18, 2026, major meteorological sources forecast the high temperature in Warsaw for March 22 to be between 12°C and 13°C (AccuWeather ~12°C, other sources ~13°C). While climatological averages are lower (~8-9°C), the near-term forecast indicates a warming trend. The market is currently overpricing '15°C or higher' (26%), which diverges significantly from the consensus forecast of 12-13°C. Thus, fair value is skewed towards the 12-14°C range, fading the probability of the extreme heat outcome.
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Exotics
To the average person not tracking Polish weather, this is a relatively niche topic. However, as a typical weather derivative prediction market, it falls under standard weather forecasting, making it neither absurd nor a mainstream public topic.
Divergence
Significant divergence. The market prices '15°C or higher' as the most likely outcome (26%), which contradicts current weather forecasts that point towards 12°C-13°C. The market may be driven by irrational bullish sentiment or specific short-term speculation not supported by meteorological data.
