According to the latest weather forecasts (especially Wunderground), the highest temperature at Chic...

On March 29, 2026, the price of '33°F or below' plummeted from 25.5c to 0.55c, and '36-37°F' plummeted from 17.5c to 1.95c, as updated meteorological models ruled out extreme cold scenarios. On March 29, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 25c to 12.5c, reflecting the convergence of short-term weather forecasts.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket currently prices '52°F or higher' as the favorite (40.5%), yet mainstream weather forecasts (including the official resolution source Wunderground) explicitly state that Chicago's temperature on April 1 will be between 35°F and 38°F, far below 52°F. This disconnect is likely due to stale early bets or excessive hedging not catching up to the latest meteorological models.

According to current prediction market data, the Yes price for 24°C is around 48.5c, making it the m...

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 24°C option rose from about 30c to 48.5c, as weather forecasts gained certainty for this temperature range as the date approached. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 23°C option briefly spiked from 15.5c to 46.5c before falling back to 16c, reflecting fluctuations and corrections in forecast models between 23°C and 24°C. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 22°C option peaked from 6c to 30.5c before settling at 12.7c, also due to volatility from short-term forecast uncertainty. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 26°C option spiked from 9c to 35.75c before dropping to around 4c, indicating that the forecast for extreme heat was ruled out by the models.

With less than two days remaining until the March 31 deadline, there is no indication or procedural ...

If Congress actually passes a bill explicitly creating tariffs, it would be a significant macroeconomic event. Tariffs generally raise import costs and inflation expectations, thereby pushing up the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields. For equities (S&P 500), this is a bearish signal due to higher costs, particularly for multinationals and retailers. While the short timeline makes passage unlikely, if it were to happen, the market shock would be medium to high, warranting hedging.

With less than 1 day left until the March 31 deadline, there are no signs or credible reports indica...

This is a highly exotic and conspiracy-driven market. It is an absurd and fringe question, given there is absolutely no credible evidence or mainstream reporting suggesting the Federal Reserve Chairman is at risk of arrest by law enforcement.

Although the probability is infinitesimally small, if Jerome Powell were actually arrested, it would be an unprecedented 'Black Swan' event causing an instant collapse of global financial order. As the head of the world's central bank, his legal jeopardy directly impacts the credibility of the USD and the stability of US monetary policy. If realized, equity markets would crash in panic, Treasury yields would fluctuate violently (flight to safety or credit collapse), and Gold/Bitcoin would react sharply as safe havens or chaos hedges.

As of March 29, 2026, with less than 2 days until market expiration, Netanyahu remains tied up with ...

This is a moderately exotic market. While Netanyahu is a high-profile leader whose travels are news, predicting a specific visit to a specific city (NYC) within a short timeframe is speculative and not a guaranteed scheduled event like an election. It falls into the category of geopolitical gossip/logistics forecasting.