How would you explain the exact resolution rules, such as measuring to whole degrees Celsius via Wunderground data, and the win/loss conditions for this April 12 Wellington temperature event in the simplest terms?

AI-powered analysis for: How would you explain the exact resolution rules, such as measuring to whole degrees Celsius via Wunderground data, and the win/loss conditions for this April 12 Wellington temperature event in the simplest terms?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyzing this temperature market, do the current odds accurately reflect predictable mid-April weather trends for Wellington, or are they largely driven by the randomness of short-term climate fluctuations?

AI-powered analysis for: Analyzing this temperature market, do the current odds accurately reflect predictable mid-April weather trends for Wellington, or are they largely driven by the randomness of short-term climate fluctuations?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given that this market requires waiting for finalized April 12 weather data to resolve, is the excess return worth the opportunity cost of locking up funds compared to risk-free DeFi yields?

AI-powered analysis for: Given that this market requires waiting for finalized April 12 weather data to resolve, is the excess return worth the opportunity cost of locking up funds compared to risk-free DeFi yields?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 12?

Weather|$10.2k Vol|

2 days 11 hrs

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 12? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.09 20:58

Top Undervalued

+4.5¢

20°C(No)

+3¢

19°C(No)

+1.5¢

18°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 12? AI analysis: • +4.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest MetService weather forecast, Wellington will experience heavy rain and stron...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

20°C

YesNo

30.5¢

69.5¢

26¢

74¢

0¢

+4.5¢

19°C

YesNo

21¢

79¢

18¢

82¢

0¢

+3¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

While betting on specific city temperatures is somewhat standard in prediction markets, forecasting the exact weather of a distant city on a specific date remains relatively niche and novel for the general public, making it a moderately exotic market.

Movers

April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the '22°C or higher' option plummeted from 31.5c to 7.5c, and the '18°C' option dropped from 20.5c to 4c. Concurrently, both '20°C' and '21°C' options saw price increases of over 10c. This was due to the forecast track of Cyclone Vaianu becoming clearer, with mainstream forecasts zeroing in on a high of around 20°C, thereby reducing the probabilities of extreme highs and lower temperatures. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, no significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed. The market's expectations for temperature changes have been relatively stable, with prices of all options fluctuating within small margins.