Predicting the exact frequency of social media posts by a government account over a week is a highly specific novelty market that ordinary people rarely consider or track.

April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '200+' option crashed from a peak near 80c down to around 19c, as the extremely low weekend posting frequency of the White House account severely dragged down the possibility of the final tweet count exceeding 200. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option surged from around 20c to over 66c, as the slowing pace combined with passing time made this range the most consensus-driven landing spot according to current projections. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option strongly rebounded from a low of about 4c to fluctuate between 15c and 23c, reflecting accumulating risks that the total might fall short of 180 if the low-frequency posting persists. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '200+' option surged from 16.85c to a high of 55c, as the actual posting frequency of the White House account rose sharply, drastically increasing expectations of the total exceeding 200 posts. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option crashed from 52c to 15.5c, because the high posting frequency made this range appear too conservative, prompting a rapid exit of funds. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the prices of the '120-139' and '140-159' options crashed from 31c and 29c down to 5c and 9.5c respectively, due to the actual first-day tweet data tracking significantly higher than initially expected, making these lower ranges highly unlikely. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 28c to a peak of 63.5c, as the monitoring period began and traders observed the White House account maintaining a higher daily posting frequency, shifting the expected center upwards. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option rose from 18.5c to 39.5c before retreating slightly, reflecting a temporary market repricing towards higher posting frequencies.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market on prediction platforms. Outside of degenerate bettors, mainstream society or traditional analysts rarely care about such hyper-specific stats.

2026-04-04 15:15 to 2026-04-05 12:55, the 80-99 range retraced from 55.5c to 47.5c, while the 100-119 range dropped back to 7c after a minor bounce, and the 60-79 range steadily climbed from 22.5c to 40.3c. This was due to a further slowdown in weekend posting frequency, shifting market expectations downwards from 80-119 to 60-99. 2026-04-03 18:40 to 2026-04-04 17:25, the price of the 100-119 range plummeted further from 42.5c to 7.5c, while the 80-99 range rose to 55.5c, and the 60-79 range maintained around 37.95c after peaking at 36.8c. This is because Trump's posting pace remained persistently sluggish, confirming to the market that surpassing the 100-post mark is highly unlikely, fully shifting expectations to the 60-99 ranges. 2026-04-03 15:25 to 2026-04-04 04:25, the price of the 100-119 range plummeted further from 42.5c to 20c, while the 60-79 range surged from 12.85c to 36.8c. This is because Trump's latest posting frequency has noticeably slowed, leading the market to heavily downgrade expectations for the final post count. 2026-04-03 15:25 to 2026-04-03 23:00, the price of the 100-119 range plummeted from 42.5c to 27c, while the 80-99 range remained around 42.5c, and the 60-79 range rose from 12.85c to 16.3c. This occurred because, as time progressed, the latest posting frequency data caused the market to downgrade its expectations for the total post count, reducing the likelihood of exceeding 100 posts. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of the 100-119 range surged from 20.5c to 45c, while the 80-99 range steadily rose from 29.5c to over 41.5c. The 60-79 range also experienced significant volatility (spiking from 3.3c to 14.9c before retreating). This occurred because the daily average posting frequency became clearer, causing the market to price out extreme highs or lows and concentrate bets on the upper-middle ranges. 2026-03-28 to 2026-03-29, the prices of multiple core options (e.g., 80-99, 100-119, 60-79, 120-139) plummeted by more than 10 cents. This was due to insufficient initial liquidity in the early phase of the market causing highly inflated prices, which then corrected as market makers intervened to normalize the sum of implied probabilities closer to 100%.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the Big Ten option surged from 35c to 75.5c, as its representative team won their Final Four matchup to advance to the National Championship and is viewed as the betting favorite. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the Big East option rose from 14.05c to 28.8c before stabilizing around 24.5c, as its representative team successfully advanced to the National Championship game. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the Big 12 option crashed from 37.5c to 0.2c, because its representative team was eliminated in the Final Four, losing all chances of winning the title. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the Big Ten option rose from 40c to 52.5c, as the Elite Eight concluded and Big Ten teams successfully advanced to the Final Four, significantly increasing their championship odds. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the Big East option surged from 3.5c to 12.8c, as its representative teams secured key victories in the tournament to reach the Final Four, prompting the market to reassess their title chances. March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of the Big East option surged from 2.5c to 18.1c, as the market re-evaluated the paths for teams following the bracket reveal, correcting the previously erroneous low price. March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of the Big Ten option rose from 24c to 39c, likely driven by strong early tournament performances from prominent teams (like Michigan or Purdue), causing a capital influx to correct undervaluation. March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of the Missouri Valley option crashed from 40.5c to 5.3c, as the market finally returned to reality, confirming that the conference's teams had no chance of winning or had been eliminated.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, Keaton Wagler's price plummeted from 11.15c to 0.1c because his team was eliminated or he underperformed in the Final Four, ending his chances for the MOP award. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, Keaton Wagler's price surged from 12.8c to 52.6c, as the market heavily favored his team's championship prospects and his standout performances heading into the Final Four, making him the strong favorite for MOP among listed players. Later on April 2, his price crashed back from 52.6c to 12.8c, likely because his team suffered a significant setback or he underperformed in the Final Four, drastically reducing his chances of winning the MOP. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Cameron Boozer's price plummeted from 22.5c to 0.2c, as his team was eliminated during the Elite Eight, ending his chances for the MOP award. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Keaton Wagler's price surged from 8.4c to 18.3c (before retracing to around 12c), because his team successfully advanced to the Final Four and he performed exceptionally well, making him the most promising candidate among the listed options. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, AJ Dybantsa's price crashed from 37.5c to under 1c due to early elimination or poor performance during the tournament's opening weekend.

This is a science/climate prediction market. While not as mainstream as elections, monthly temperature records have become a regular topic for data enthusiasts and the prediction community due to rising climate awareness, so it's not extremely niche.