Predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a somewhat niche market tailored for weather enthusiasts. While not completely absurd, it is an unconventional topic for the general public.

April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 76-77°F surged from 9.5c to 38.5c (currently settling at 32.5c), as the latest meteorological models revised the estimated high temperature upward, making this range the most likely outcome. April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 74-75°F surged from 13c to 37.5c, as continuous updates to short-term weather models significantly increased the likelihood of this temperature range. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 72-73°F rose from 18.5c to 32.5c before falling back to 22c, reflecting minor fluctuations in the forecasted strength of the cool air. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 78-79°F crashed from 18.5c to 1.8c, as weather models completely ruled out the possibility of a significant temperature spike.

Predicting the exact temperature of a specific city on a given date is an established niche in prediction markets, but it is far from a mainstream topic the general public thinks about daily, making it moderately novel.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The price of 16°C skyrocketed from 27c to 97.5c, and 17°C plummeted from 11.5c to 3c. This occurred because as the local afternoon arrived, the actually observed peak temperature locked in at 16°C, leading the market to confirm the final outcome. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026: Prices for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C experienced drastic fluctuations (swings of over 20c) as weather forecast models vacillated on the intensity of incoming cold air closer to the date, causing funds to rapidly shift between adjacent temperature buckets. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The prices for 11°C and 12°C plummeted from 26.5c to around 2c. This is because as the expiration date approaches, weather forecasts clearly indicate temperatures will be much higher, prompting the market to correct early mispricing. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of '20°C or higher' rose from 2c to 14.9c, likely due to some traders hedging against extreme warm weather tail risks, or anomalous volatility caused by low liquidity.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 36.5c to 88.5c, while 30°C plummeted from 52c to 9.5c. The reason is that Shenzhen's local time has passed the afternoon peak temperature hours, and real-time observation data indicates the high temperature stayed at 29°C, making the chance of hitting 30°C extremely slim. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 35c to 51c, while the price of 28°C plummeted from 32.5c to 12.5c. The reason is that the latest weather forecasts closer to the resolution date further confirmed the warming trend, making 29°C the most certain expectation for the high temperature. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations. The price of 29°C surged from 16.5c to 32c, and 28°C rose from 18c to 29c. Meanwhile, 25°C plummeted from 18.5c to 3.4c, and 31°C dropped from 25c to 9.5c. The reason is that weather forecasting models updated as the date approached, stabilizing the expected high temperature in the 28-29°C range and eliminating earlier anomalous predictions of extreme highs or lows.

While predicting daily temperatures for specific cities is an established category in prediction markets, it remains a relatively niche and mundane topic compared to mainstream political or financial events.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of '25°C' surged from 12.5c to 85c, as local time in Wuhan entered the late afternoon and actual observations confirmed the high temperature stabilizing around 25°C, causing market consensus to rapidly converge. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of '26°C' initially spiked from 7.5c to 62.5c before plunging back to 8c. This was driven by a rapid intra-day temperature rise that briefly fueled expectations of a higher peak, which quickly collapsed when the warming ceased in the afternoon. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '24°C' surged consistently from 11c to 30.5c, as approaching meteorological models converged on a peak temperature around 24°C. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '23°C' rebounded sharply from 14.5c to 30c, reflecting increased expectations that thicker cloud cover mentioned in forecasts might cap the temperature. April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '21°C or below' plummeted from 35.5c to 3.5c, as closer forecasts indicated stable warming, almost eliminating the probability of extreme low temperatures.

There is a short-term divergence. The official forecast from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) previously predicted a high of around 24°C under cloudy skies and easterly winds. However, actual morning and midday observations showed temperatures rising faster than initial models, hitting 25°C. The prediction market quickly reacted to this real-time observational upside surprise, creating a divergence from the earlier official meteorological consensus.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '24°C' option surged from 13c to 29.5c before pulling back, as some short-term meteorological models indicated an increased likelihood of sunshine-induced warming due to clearing clouds. April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '25°C or higher' option continued to plummet from 28c to 6c, as updated meteorological models closer to the date ruled out extreme high temperatures, converging expectations toward the 22°C-23°C range. April 3, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '19°C' option dropped from 17c to around 1.35c, because as the impact of cold air weakened and forecasts became clearer, the market became confident that temperatures would rebound above 20°C.