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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
17°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
22°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As March 19 approaches, short-term forecasts (nowcasts) are becoming more precise. Current data from MetService and Wunderground consistently point to a high between 17°C and 18°C for Wellington. MetService forecasts a high of 17°C for Thursday with Southerlies, a wind direction that typically suppresses temperatures. Wunderground's hourly forecast also shows daytime temperatures hovering around 16°C-17°C, with 18°C being possible but slightly less likely, and 19°C becoming increasingly improbable. Given Wellington Airport's coastal location, which is susceptible to cooling sea breezes, actual recorded temperatures often track slightly lower than or equal to city forecasts. Therefore, fair value has shifted slightly from 18°C to favor 17°C, with 16°C as a strong downside hedge. 18°C remains a strong contender, but probabilities for 19°C and above have diminished significantly.
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Movers
On March 18, 2026, the '19°C' option retraced from earlier highs (~33c) down to 28.5c, as weather models increasingly favored 17-18°C closer to the date, shaking market confidence.
From March 17-18, 2026, the '18°C' option steadily climbed to 42.5c, becoming the market favorite, as it sits within the margin of error of the MetService forecast (17°C) and aligns with historical stats.
From March 15-16, 2026, the '20°C' option crashed from 40.5c to around 10c, as initial illiquidity-driven mispricing was rapidly corrected by approaching weather forecasts confirming cooler temperatures.
Divergence
A slight divergence exists. The official MetService forecast is for a high of 17°C, whereas the prediction market currently prices 18°C as the favorite (42.5c), followed by 19°C (28.5c) and then 17°C (18.5c). The market appears to be betting on the actual recording being 1 degree higher than the forecast (a common bet on weather bias) or is lagging behind the latest forecast update which downgraded temps to 17°C. The 17°C option is significantly undervalued by the market (at only 18.5c) relative to the official forecast, representing the largest value divergence.
