All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
19°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
23°C or higher
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
13°C or below
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
MetService (New Zealand authority) explicitly forecasts a high of 19°C for Wellington on March 21, with partly cloudy skies and easing southerlies. Wunderground (IBM model) forecasts approx 65°F (~18.3°C), while Weather25 suggests ~21°C. Given MetService's local accuracy, the recorded temperature is most likely to land on 19°C or the adjacent 18°C (due to rounding or minor variance). The market is currently overpricing cooler options (16-17°C combined ~42%) and significantly undervaluing the official 19°C forecast (only 14.5%). Fair value is heavily concentrated around 18-19°C.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '18°C' surged from 17c to 31c, as mainstream weather models (like MetService) solidified a warmer 19°C forecast, removing earlier fears of a cold snap.
March 17, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of '16°C' crashed from 26c to ~10c (before rebounding to 15c), as forecast updates indicated warmer temperatures than initially expected, causing a sell-off in low-temperature bets.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The NZ authority MetService forecasts a high of 19°C, yet the prediction market currently favors 18°C (31c) and even 17°C (27.5c), while pricing the official 19°C forecast at a remarkably low 14.5c. This suggests market participants may be over-relying on outdated cold-front models or Wunderground's slightly lower algorithmic forecast (65°F), presenting a clear correction opportunity.
