All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
15°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
12°C or below
YesNo
22°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The historical average high for Wellington in late March is 18°C-19°C. Search data for adjacent dates (March 16-18) indicates temperatures ranging from 18°C to 22°C, suggesting a mild autumn pattern. The market currently severely overprices the extreme tails ('12°C or below' and '22°C or higher' both at ~25.5c), which contradicts both climatology and the current mild trend. Fair value is concentrated in the central 17-20°C cluster.
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Divergence
Market pricing implies a 25% probability of extreme cold ('12°C or below'), whereas mainstream meteorological models and climatology suggest a probability of <1%. The market prices exhibit an irrational 'flat' distribution that fails to reflect the normal distribution of weather probabilities.
