Predicting the specific highest temperature of a foreign city on a single day is a niche, long-tail topic. While it is a standard weather market on prediction platforms, it is relatively obscure for the general public.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 17°C option surged from 2.5c to 45.5c, driven by updated rain and cooling forecasts pushing the expected high down to around 17°C as the target date arrived. April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The 18°C option rose from 11c to a peak of 53c before falling to 27c. The market initially saw it as the most likely outcome when forecasts dropped from 19-20°C, but later forecasts cooled even further to 17°C. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The 20°C option plummeted from 34c to 2.75c, as the approaching resolution date confirmed a cooler front, eliminating the likelihood of reaching 20°C.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a standard niche topic (weather forecasting) in prediction markets. While not a mainstream macro event, it is neither bizarre nor absurd.

From May 2, 2026, 01:43 to 04:58, the price of 32°C surged from 21c to 30c as the actual weather forecasts converged toward this temperature range near settlement, reflecting a higher probability in the market. From May 1 to May 2, 2026, other options experienced mild fluctuations, with 33°C slightly rising to 32c and 34°C dropping from its peak (35.5c) to 29c, reflecting minor adjustments in expectations.

While daily weather forecasts are standard fare on prediction market platforms, predicting the exact high temperature in Jeddah on a specific day remains a relatively niche and obscure topic for the general public and traditional investors.

Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the price of 37°C surged from 6.5c to 47.5c, and 38°C climbed from 3.15c to 18.7c, while the price of 35°C plummeted from 28c to 9.5c. This is because as the expiration date approaches, updated weather forecasting models and initial live observations indicated that the actual temperature would be significantly higher than expected a few days ago, driving a sharp shift in market sentiment towards higher temperatures.

Resolution heavily relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). The rules contain edge cases regarding 'replies' (counted if recorded on the main feed) and 'deleted posts' (counted if they survive ~5 mins). This creates a risk of divergence between the tracker's captured data and manual counts on the platform.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts by a specific public figure on a specific platform in a given week is a highly niche and novelty entertainment market. The general public rarely considers or tracks such granular details.

April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, prices for almost all options plummeted (e.g., '100-119' dropped from 48c to 22c, '200+' from 48.5c to 5.15c). The reason is that uncalibrated initial liquidity upon market creation pushed all 'Yes' options to roughly 40-50c, which were subsequently corrected by traders pricing in realistic weekly posting volumes.

The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.