Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche market. While the general public rarely predicts this precisely in daily life, weather-related betting is somewhat common in certain circles and not completely absurd.

April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 8.5c to 97.3c, while the 22°C and 23°C options collapsed from 40c and 36.5c respectively to below 1c. This occurred because, as the resolution day arrived (reaching afternoon in Beijing time), actual meteorological observations confirmed the daily high would not exceed 21°C, causing instant market convergence. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 22°C option experienced massive volatility, dropping from 30.5c to 12.5c before rebounding sharply to 37c. This was due to minor adjustments in meteorological models regarding the exact timing of expected rain and cloud cover, after which updated near-term forecasts reaffirmed 22°C as the most likely high. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, prices for several outlier temperature options (e.g., 18°C, 19°C, 20°C) consistently plummeted from around 26.5c to under 5c (with 18°C dropping to 0.55c). This occurred because, as the expiration date nears, short-term weather forecasting models gained exceptionally high certainty, thoroughly ruling out the possibility of anomalous low temperatures.