Visit the Wunderground website to retrieve the latest high-temperature forecast for Wuhan Tianhe Airport (ZHHH) on March 20, and combine this with Polymarket's current low trading volume ($340) and order book spreads to reassess the fair probability and liquidity risks of each temperature option (e.g., 15°C, 16°C).

AI-powered analysis for: Visit the Wunderground website to retrieve the latest high-temperature forecast for Wuhan Tianhe Airport (ZHHH) on March 20, and combine this with Polymarket's current low trading volume ($340) and order book spreads to reassess the fair probability and liquidity risks of each temperature option (e.g., 15°C, 16°C).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest forecasts for Wuhan on March 20 from authoritative meteorological sources like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) or AccuWeather, and compare them with Wunderground's data characteristics to identify potential statistical errors (such as rounding rules or specific location variances of the ZHHH station) that could cause the resolution to deviate from the mainstream forecast.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest forecasts for Wuhan on March 20 from authoritative meteorological sources like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) or AccuWeather, and compare them with Wunderground's data characteristics to identify potential statistical errors (such as rounding rules or specific location variances of the ZHHH station) that could cause the resolution to deviate from the mainstream forecast.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the market's extremely low liquidity ($340 total volume), calculate the slippage cost savings of using Limit Orders versus Market Orders when betting on the most probable temperature range (e.g., 14°C-17°C), and determine the optimal limit price that ensures execution while maintaining positive expected value.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the market's extremely low liquidity ($340 total volume), calculate the slippage cost savings of using Limit Orders versus Market Orders when betting on the most probable temperature range (e.g., 14°C-17°C), and determine the optimal limit price that ensures execution while maintaining positive expected value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$2,925 Vol|

1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

10°C

YesNo

39.95¢

60.05¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+38.9¢

11°C

YesNo

39.95¢

60.05¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+38.9¢

14°C

YesNo

45¢

55¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+35¢

13°C

YesNo

32¢

68¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+27¢

12°C

YesNo

24.5¢

75.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+22.5¢

16°C

YesNo

42¢

58¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+22¢

15°C

YesNo

30.5¢

69.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+15.5¢

17°C

YesNo

29.5¢

70.5¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+9.5¢

18°C or higher

YesNo

22¢

78¢

24¢

76¢

+2¢

0¢

9°C

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

1¢

99¢

+0.6¢

0¢

8°C or below

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

1¢

99¢

+0.6¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.19 23:43 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on historical climatology for Wuhan on March 20 (average high ~16°C-18°C) and recent forecast ...

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Divergence

There is a severe divergence and pricing error in the market. The sum of implied probabilities for all options is approximately 445%, which is mathematically impossible (theoretical limit is 100%). This indicates the market is illiquid or inefficiently traded, resulting in a gross overvaluation of all options.

Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

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