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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
March 15
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
For the March 15 option, the window has closed, and credible intelligence (e.g., Gulf International Forum, Mar 16) confirms the Houthis 'held back' and refrained from direct military engagement during this period. With no qualifying 'impact strike' reported by the Mar 18 reporting deadline, the value is 0. For the March 31 option, fair value (8c) is significantly below market price (15c) despite the upcoming Eid al-Fitr (approx. Mar 20) window. Key reasons: 1. Strict rules require physical impact on Israeli ground, which is unlikely given high interception rates of Israeli air defenses; 2. Latest intelligence (Mar 17) indicates the Houthis are prioritizing self-preservation and a defensive posture following heavy losses in 2025 and threats of leadership assassination; 3. Accelerating time decay with less than two weeks remaining.
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Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in the strict definition of a 'Strike'. The rules explicitly exclude intercepted missiles, resolving to 'No' even if falling debris causes damage or casualties. Given Israel's high-efficiency air defense systems (Iron Dome, Arrow), many headline 'attacks' will technically be interceptions. Additionally, attribution confirmation (verifying it was Houthi forces vs. other proxies) may face delays or ambiguity.
Hedging
Crude Oil
If a Houthi missile successfully bypasses defense systems and physically impacts Israeli soil (resolving Yes), it would mark a significant escalation, suggesting air defense gaps or increased attack intensity. This would immediately trigger fears of Israeli retaliation and deeper Iranian involvement, driving a short-term spike in Crude Oil prices and slightly boosting safe-haven assets like Gold.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the March 31 option price crashed from 28.5c to 15c. The reason is that multiple credible international reports (e.g., Xinhua, Atlantic Council) published on Mar 16-17 confirmed the Houthis were 'holding back' and not coordinating attacks with Iran as feared, causing bullish sentiment to collapse.
March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the March 31 option price crashed from 45c to 28.5c. The reason is that the market's earlier panic regarding conflict escalation during 'Eid al-Fitr' failed to materialize. As the weekend passed without any significant attacks, speculative capital exited rapidly, causing a sharp correction.
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the March 15 option price dropped from 19.5c to 7.5c and subsequently went to zero. The reason is that as the expiration date approached without any Houthi action, bulls completely capitulated on this time window.
