May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, prices for the ↑48% and ↑49% options crashed (e.g., ↑48% fell from 33.25c to 8.4c, and ↑49% from 46.25c to 10.5c). The reason is likely the withdrawal of irrational speculative funds in a low-liquidity market, as prices began returning to rational ranges and partially fixing monotonicity violations. Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, the price of the ↑ 50% option dropped rapidly from 7.35c to 2.15c. The reason was likely the latest Silver Bulletin data showing a further decline, causing the market to effectively abandon the fantasy of a rally to 50% this year, reducing the tail risk premium to near zero. Feb 28, 2026 - Mar 01, 2026, the price of ↑ 44% crashed from 27.5c to 17.5c, likely due to new polling data confirming the downward trend, triggering a bull exodus. Feb 25, 2026 - Feb 26, 2026, prices for high-strike options (↑ 49% and ↑ 50%) were cut in half (7c to 3.6c, 6c to 2.6c), marking the bursting of the previous premium bubble as the market moved toward rational pricing.

Market pricing heavily diverges from mainstream logic and polling fundamentals. The probability of hitting 47% is being priced at nearly 44%, vastly deviating from the historical central tendency of Trump's approval ratings (where mainstream consensus views 45% as a very hard ceiling). Furthermore, the complete collapse of monotonicity between options (pricing harder milestones above easier ones) is itself an obvious sign of detachment from reality.