Based on historical USGS data over the past year, what is the average weekly frequency of global earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on historical USGS data over the past year, what is the average weekly frequency of global earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How do the resolution rules handle USGS magnitude revisions within 24 hours of the final day? Explain like I'm 5 the specific conditions that could delay the market resolution to May 31.

AI-powered analysis for: How do the resolution rules handle USGS magnitude revisions within 24 hours of the final day? Explain like I'm 5 the specific conditions that could delay the market resolution to May 31.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume ($110), how significant is the slippage risk, and how can a 'Stink Bid' strategy be applied to catch sudden panic selling on specific earthquake count options?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume ($110), how significant is the slippage risk, and how can a 'Stink Bid' strategy be applied to catch sudden panic selling on specific earthquake count options?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - April 12?

Science|$15.5k Vol|

4 days 5 hrs

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - April 12? - AI Found +20.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.06 13:37

Top Undervalued

+20.4¢

3(No)

+9.5¢

4(No)

+8.5¢

6(No)

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - April 12? AI analysis: • +20.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on historical seismic data, the Earth experiences approximately 400-500 earthquakes of magnitu...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

25.45¢

74.55¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+20.4¢

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+9.5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

While weather and natural disaster markets exist, predicting the exact number of global earthquakes magnitude 5.5+ within a specific future week is certainly not a mainstream topic the general public thinks about, giving it a strong niche and exotic novelty appeal.

Movers

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of option '3' surged from ~6c to 31c, and option '7' temporarily spiked from 15c to 40c before falling to 23.5c, due to irrational capital influx at the start of the observation period, causing a severe premium. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '>9' option fell from 42c to 32.55c, '5' fell from 24c to 16c, '6' fell from 29c to 19c, and '7' fell from 31c to 15.5c. This was due to a natural correction of initially severely overvalued prices moving back towards fundamentals as time progressed.

Divergence

The market pricing significantly deviates from scientific statistical common sense. Current prices imply a 31.1% probability of exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5+ occurring over 7 days, whereas historical USGS averages dictate that 7-10 occurrences are the norm. This divergence is typically caused by short-term speculative capital and low liquidity in prediction markets.