[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and cross-reference with the USGS official database to confirm the exact count of >7.0 magnitude earthquakes that have occurred since December 4, 2025 (Base Count). Based on this confirmed number and the current odds for options like 4, 5, or 6, assess whether the market is accurately pricing the probability of additional quakes in the remaining 4 months.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and cross-reference with the USGS official database to confirm the exact count of >7.0 magnitude earthquakes that have occurred since December 4, 2025 (Base Count). Based on this confirmed number and the current odds for options like 4, 5, or 6, assess whether the market is accurately pricing the probability of additional quakes in the remaining 4 months.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Stats] Historical Frequency Statistics: Retrieve USGS historical data from the past 20 years to calculate the average frequency of 7.0+ magnitude earthquakes specifically between March and June. Compare this baseline with the current count to analyze if the "8+" option carries a statistical premium or if lower-count options (like 3 or 4) align with Poisson distribution expectations.

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Stats] Historical Frequency Statistics: Retrieve USGS historical data from the past 20 years to calculate the average frequency of 7.0+ magnitude earthquakes specifically between March and June. Compare this baseline with the current count to analyze if the "8+" option carries a statistical premium or if lower-count options (like 3 or 4) align with Poisson distribution expectations.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Theta Analysis] Time Decay Sensitivity Analysis: Analyze the non-linear impact of "silence" on the odds of different buckets. If no >7.0 earthquake occurs globally in the next 30 days, how significantly will the odds for high-count options (e.g., 7 or 8+) likely be repriced? Evaluate if it is currently profitable to hold low-count options to capture value purely from the passage of time.

AI-powered analysis for: [Theta Analysis] Time Decay Sensitivity Analysis: Analyze the non-linear impact of "silence" on the odds of different buckets. If no >7.0 earthquake occurs globally in the next 30 days, how significantly will the odds for high-count options (e.g., 7 or 8+) likely be repriced? Evaluate if it is currently profitable to hold low-count options to capture value purely from the passage of time.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

Weather|$1.8m Vol|

57 days 18 hrs

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.02 03:49

Top Undervalued

+7.1¢

8+(Yes)

+0.6¢

7(Yes)

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? AI analysis: • +7.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current count of qualifying earthquakes (>=7.0) is inferred to be 6. With about 58 days remainin...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

77.95¢

22.05¢

85¢

15¢

+7.1¢

0¢

YesNo

14.4¢

85.6¢

15¢

85¢

+0.6¢

0¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Although earthquakes are natural phenomena, betting on their frequency is uncommon. Most people lack intuitive knowledge of the baseline frequency of global 7.0+ earthquakes, making this a niche scientific statistical topic rather than a mainstream public interest event.

Movers

Apr 28, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, the '8+' option dropped from 92.55c to 80.65c due to the absence of new qualifying earthquakes recently; as the deadline approaches, time decay caused the market to downgrade the probability of hitting higher counts. Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 21, 2026, the '8+' option surged from 84c to 94.55c following a magnitude 7.4 earthquake off the coast of Iwate, Japan, which increased the total count, though the market initially overestimated the progress. Apr 1, 2026 - Apr 3, 2026, the '8+' option surged from 72.5c to 85.5c due to the continuous occurrence of qualifying strong earthquakes, greatly increasing the probability of reaching 8 or more. Mar 31, 2026 - Apr 3, 2026, the '8+' option surged from 67.5c to 85.5c as the market further confirmed the high-frequency outcome. Mar 30, 2026 - Apr 2, 2026, the '8+' option surged from 55.5c to 82.5c due to consecutive strong quakes pushing expectations higher. Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the '8+' option surged from 55.5c to 72.5c following a series of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes. Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, '8+' surged while low-frequency options plummeted after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake near Tonga shifted capital into high-frequency options.