[Mandatory Task] Access the USGS official database to count the exact number of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes that have occurred YTD in 2026. Combine this with the Polymarket order book to compare the current run rate against the historical annual average (approx. 14-16) and analyze if the current odds distribution accurately reflects the statistical probability for the remaining time.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Access the USGS official database to count the exact number of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes that have occurred YTD in 2026. Combine this with the Polymarket order book to compare the current run rate against the historical annual average (approx. 14-16) and analyze if the current odds distribution accurately reflects the statistical probability for the remaining time.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Query USGS annual data for the past 20 years to calculate the mean and median number of 7.0+ magnitude earthquakes per year. Pay special attention to outlier years with 'clustering' or 'extreme quiet' (e.g., fewer than 10 or more than 20) to assess the realistic probability of extreme options (<5 or 20+).

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Frequency Statistics] Query USGS annual data for the past 20 years to calculate the mean and median number of 7.0+ magnitude earthquakes per year. Pay special attention to outlier years with 'clustering' or 'extreme quiet' (e.g., fewer than 10 or more than 20) to assess the realistic probability of extreme options (<5 or 20+).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Randomness vs. Predictability Analysis] Apply a Poisson distribution model based on the historical average (Lambda ≈ 15) to calculate the theoretical probability for each option bucket (e.g., 11-13, 14-16). Compare these mathematical probabilities against Polymarket's current implied odds to identify any pricing deviations (+EV opportunities) caused by recent short-term variance.

AI-powered analysis for: [Randomness vs. Predictability Analysis] Apply a Poisson distribution model based on the historical average (Lambda ≈ 15) to calculate the theoretical probability for each option bucket (e.g., 11-13, 14-16). Compare these mathematical probabilities against Polymarket's current implied odds to identify any pricing deviations (+EV opportunities) caused by recent short-term variance.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Weather|$1.3m Vol|

242 days 6 hrs

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - AI Found 1.36% APY

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 23:53

Top Undervalued

+3.2¢

8–10(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

4¢

Arbitrage

1.36%

Annualized yield

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? AI analysis: • +3.2¢ undervalued • 1.36% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy No shares for all options Plan Description: Only 1 of the 6 options will resolve to Yes, while the other 5 will resolve to No. The total cost to...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sum of Yes prices across all options is approximately 104.5c. Based on USGS historical data, the...

🔓 Log in to see more

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

8–10

YesNo

8.85¢

91.15¢

12¢

88¢

+3.2¢

0¢

17–19

YesNo

21¢

79¢

24¢

76¢

+3¢

0¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

This is a scientific statistical question. While not a daily topic for the general public, it is standard data for disaster risk analysis and geology enthusiasts, placing it in the medium exotic category.