All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
8–10
YesNo
20+
YesNo
14–16
YesNo
17–19
YesNo
11–13
YesNo
<5
YesNo
5–7
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 17:16 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 17, 2026, only 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0+ has been recorded. With ~289 days (0.79 years) remaining, and based on the USGS long-term average of 15 events/year, the expected number of additional earthquakes is 11.9, bringing the total annual statistical expectation to ~13 (1 + 11.9). Poisson distribution modeling identifies the '11–13' interval as having the highest probability (~32%), followed closely by '14–16' (~26%). Although early 2026 has been quiet, geological activity tends toward Mean Reversion. The market currently exhibits 'Recency Bias' by overpricing lower-frequency intervals (like '8–10' and '5–7'), assuming the current lull will persist. Consequently, '11–13' is undervalued at 27c compared to its fair value of 32c.
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Exotics
This is a scientific statistical question. While not a daily topic for the general public, it is standard data for disaster risk analysis and geology enthusiasts, placing it in the medium exotic category.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The mainstream scientific view (USGS) treats major earthquakes as a Poisson process where the long-term average (15/year) is the key predictor, implying frequency should normalize in coming months. However, market pricing reflects strong 'Recency Bias,' assigning probabilities to '8–10' (23.5c) and '5–7' (7.25c) that far exceed statistical likelihood. The market is effectively betting that 2026 will be a historically rare 'silent year,' contradicting geological consensus.
