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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
400-500k
YesNo
200-300k
YesNo
300-400k
YesNo
500-600k
YesNo
600-700k
YesNo
<200k
YesNo
>1m
YesNo
700-800k
YesNo
900k-1m
YesNo
800-900k
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.05 23:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the simulated context of March 5, 2026: FY2026 is nearly halfway through (Oct 2025 - Mar 2026). Given the established enforcement run-rate of 30-40k/month, the annualized baseline is firmly between 360k-480k. As the $77B budget fully translates into operational capacity in the spring, the second half of the fiscal year is highly likely to accelerate. The market is correctly discarding <300k options (which are overpriced given current monthly data). Fair value clusters in the 400k-500k range, with 500k-600k as a hedge for better-than-expected budget utilization. Million-scale deportations (>1m) are logically impossible given logistical constraints.
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Rule Risk
The title asks about '2026' (implying calendar year), but the rules explicitly resolve based on the 'FY 2026' ICE Annual Report (typically Oct 1, 2025 - Sep 30, 2026). This discrepancy between calendar and fiscal years creates confusion. Additionally, while 'deport' is a broad colloquial term, the rules specify resolution via 'removed' non-citizens, distinct from 'returns', which may differ from public perception.
Hedging
GEO
CXW
This event directly correlates with the revenue expectations of private prison and detention center operators like GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW). A prediction of high deportation numbers implies higher bed demand and government contracts, serving as a direct bullish signal for these stocks (and vice versa). While impact on macro indices (like Russell 2000) is limited, it is a significant tradable event for this specific sector.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Political rhetoric and some mainstream media continue to discuss the promise or fear of 'millions' being deported, skewing public perception toward extremely high figures (>1m). However, the prediction market (Polymarket), based on rational analysis of ICE budgets and monthly operational capacity, has concentrated probability almost entirely in the realistic 300k-600k range, effectively ignoring the >1m possibility (priced at only 4.5c). This represents a classic divergence between 'political slogans' and 'administrative reality'.
