Geopolitics|$91.9k Vol|
4 days 6 hrsHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
45+
YesNo
40-44
YesNo
30-34
YesNo
25-29
YesNo
20-24
YesNo
35-39
YesNo
15-19
YesNo
<10
YesNo
10-14
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The critical pivot signal on March 17 (Windward confirming 'friendly' vessels using a new route, and IMF PortWatch data showing daily calls recovering to ~6) indicates Iran is executing a 'selective transit' policy. Maintaining a daily run-rate of 6-7 ships (only ~10% of normal volume, a low bar given the trade needs of China, India, and Russia) would place the weekly total in the 42-49 range. The market's current pricing (45+ at only 40c) is suppressed by the lagging media narrative of a 'total blockade' and fails to fully price in the 'new route' volume. Thus, we view '45+' as undervalued with a fair value closer to 60c, with '40-44' serving as a valuable hedge.
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Movers
On March 17, 2026, the price of '45+' surged from 5c to 40c, while '20-24' crashed from 42c to 7c. This was driven by new maritime tracking data (Windward) revealing Iran has opened a 'permission-based' new route for friendly vessels, shattering the previous market consensus of a 'total blockade' and causing a sharp upward revision in transit expectations.
From March 14 to March 16, 2026, the '20-24' option was temporarily bid up due to initial 'zero transit' panic reports, which were subsequently falsified by later data.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream financial media (e.g., S&P Global, Bloomberg) headlines still emphasize 'Hormuz virtually closed' or 'daily transits down to 2-3 (tankers only),' creating an extremely pessimistic sentiment. However, the prediction market, reacting to real-time maritime intelligence (Windward), has identified recovering traffic via a 'new route' (including bulk carriers), making market pricing (betting on 45+) far more optimistic than the media narrative. This information lag presents an opportunity for data-driven traders.
