Oil|$50 Vol|
12 days 4 hrsHow many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
20+
YesNo
<5
YesNo
5–7
YesNo
8–10
YesNo
11–13
YesNo
14–16
YesNo
17–19
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to mainstream media and maritime intelligence (e.g., Windward, Wikipedia '2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis'), as of March 12, Iran has conducted 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships, with the IRGC explicitly claiming responsibility for many. These incidents meet the criteria of 'distinct commercial vessels' and 'kinetic strikes' by Iranian forces (not proxies). Unless the market rule 'Market Creation' perversely refers to today (March 18) implying only future counts, the '20+' option has effectively already resolved Yes. Even under a 'future increments only' interpretation, the current rate of ~1.2 attacks/day suggests >5 additional attacks in the remaining 12 days, making the 50% pricing for '<5' completely disconnected from reality.
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Rule Risk
The major trap lies in the 'Proxy Exclusion Clause'. The rules explicitly exclude attacks by proxies like Houthis or Hezbollah unless explicitly claimed by Iran or originating from Iranian territory. Casual traders might misinterpret headlines about 'Iran-backed attacks' as counting toward the market, whereas they typically do not. Additionally, intercepted strikes causing only debris damage do not count as a 'direct impact'.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
This event is highly positively correlated with Crude Oil prices. A resolution in the high range (e.g., 20+) would imply direct naval engagement or a blockade by Iranian state forces (Strait of Hormuz), representing a massive supply shock that would spike oil prices. Gold would rally as a safe haven, while equities might face pressure due to inflation fears and war risk.
Divergence
Extreme divergence. Market pricing implies a 50% probability of <5 attacks, while real-world data (Wiki, Windward, ISW) confirms that since the crisis began in late February, Iran has already conducted over 21 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels. The market is completely failing to price in established facts.
