All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
200 or more
YesNo
<100
YesNo
140-159
YesNo
160-179
YesNo
120-139
YesNo
180-199
YesNo
100-119
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 17:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 16, 2026, approaching the end of Q1, SpaceX's launch cadence remains stable with recent signs of further acceleration. The market is undergoing significant repricing, shifting capital from the previously dominant '140-159' bracket toward the more aggressive '160-179' range, which surged over 12c in three days. This reflects growing confidence in Falcon 9 turnaround limits and Starship's commercial flight frequency. The current annualized run rate has steadily surpassed 150 launches, making '140-159' appear increasingly conservative, while '160-179' emerges as the most logical landing spot combining linear extrapolation with moderate growth (assigned 42% probability). Notably, while '200 or more' is statistically improbable (requiring a near-daily cadence), its market price (14c) remains irrationally higher than '180-199' (9.7c). This inversion suggests a persistent 'Musk Target Premium' or a tail-risk hedge on an explosive Starship ramp-up, which the model significantly discounts.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, '160-179' surged from 31c to 43.5c (+12.5c), driven by sustained high launch density in mid-March and likely positive sentiment around Starship progress, causing capital to consolidate rapidly into this 'golden growth bracket' from both conservative (140-159) and extreme (200+) positions.
Mar 06, 2026 - Mar 07, 2026, '160-179' rose from 31c to 37c (+6c), reflecting capital rotation toward growth brackets after observing high-frequency launch data in early March.
Mar 05, 2026 - Mar 06, 2026, '180-199' dropped from 20c to 13.5c (-6.5c), indicating a pullback in confidence for extreme high-frequency targets.
Feb 26, 2026 - Feb 27, 2026, '200 or more' corrected sharply from 30.5c to 21c, signaling a retreat of aggressive bullish capital.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence in tail pricing. While '180-199' has dropped to 9.7c, the more extreme '200 or more' option unusually remains higher at 14c. In a normal distribution model, probability should decrease as values deviate further from the mean (currently ~165). This price inversion suggests an irrational 'faith premium,' where traders are betting on a non-linear explosive growth (likely via Starship full reusability) that skips the 180s range to hit 200+, contradicting the current progressive ramp-up of launch cycles.
