All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1250+
YesNo
<950
YesNo
1000–1049
YesNo
1100–1149
YesNo
950–999
YesNo
1150–1199
YesNo
1050–1099
YesNo
1200–1249
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 15:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While January 2026 was quiet, February (52 counts) and early March (~35+ counts) have rebounded to above-average levels. Forecasts confirm a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral this spring, a phase historically correlated with active tornado seasons in the US. Although a potential shift to El Niño by summer might suppress late-year activity, the active start and volatile spring outlook make a total count under 950 (vs historical avg ~1225) extremely unlikely. The market's 20% pricing for '<950' implies a catastrophic drop-off that contradicts current data. Fair value is highest around the climatological mean (1150-1250).
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Exotics
Predicting annual tornado counts falls under the category of Weather Derivatives. While it is a serious topic for the insurance and reinsurance industries, it is a relatively niche and specialized subject for the general public and general-purpose prediction markets.
Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of '<950' surged from 10c to 20.5c. The reason is likely the market overreacting to updated forecasts predicting a return of El Niño by summer/fall; traders may be aggressively betting on suppressed late-year activity, ignoring the currently active spring season.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market pricing reflects a 'barbell' distribution (high probability on extremes <950 and 1250+), implying either a bust or a boom. However, the meteorological consensus (La Niña -> Neutral -> El Niño) typically drives a front-loaded year that settles near the climatological average (1100-1300). The 20% implied probability for <950 contradicts the actual Year-To-Date data, which shows above-average tornado activity.
