[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the real-time Polymarket order book for the 'How many Tornadoes in the US in March?' event (specifically noting the low liquidity feature of only $10.55), visit the NOAA NCEI official site to confirm the stability of the data release schedule, and combine early seasonal meteorological forecasts to reassess the fair value and liquidity risk of core options like '70–99' and '100–129'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the real-time Polymarket order book for the 'How many Tornadoes in the US in March?' event (specifically noting the low liquidity feature of only $10.55), visit the NOAA NCEI official site to confirm the stability of the data release schedule, and combine early seasonal meteorological forecasts to reassess the fair value and liquidity risk of core options like '70–99' and '100–129'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Base Probability Anchoring: Search NCEI historical records from the past 20 years (2006-2025) for 'Total US Tornado counts in March'. Calculate the actual frequency of final counts falling into each of the market's option ranges (<70, 70–99, 100–129, 130–149, 150+) to establish a statistical 'base rate' and determine if current odds show significant deviation.

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Frequency Statistics] Base Probability Anchoring: Search NCEI historical records from the past 20 years (2006-2025) for 'Total US Tornado counts in March'. Calculate the actual frequency of final counts falling into each of the market's option ranges (<70, 70–99, 100–129, 130–149, 150+) to establish a statistical 'base rate' and determine if current odds show significant deviation.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Meteorological Outbreak Analysis: Based on the long-range weather outlooks for March 2026 from NOAA/SPC (Storm Prediction Center), analyze whether the current ENSO state (El Niño/La Niña) and jet stream positioning favor severe weather formation. Are there specific 'tornado outbreak' setups predicted that could serve as catalysts to push the final count into the higher '130–149' or '150+' ranges?

AI-powered analysis for: [Potential Catalyst Prediction] Meteorological Outbreak Analysis: Based on the long-range weather outlooks for March 2026 from NOAA/SPC (Storm Prediction Center), analyze whether the current ENSO state (El Niño/La Niña) and jet stream positioning favor severe weather formation. Are there specific 'tornado outbreak' setups predicted that could serve as catalysts to push the final count into the higher '130–149' or '150+' ranges?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$76.7k Vol|

22 days 6 hrs

How many Tornadoes in the US in March? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

150+

YesNo

98.6¢

1.4¢

88¢

12¢

0¢

+10.6¢

130–149

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

8¢

92¢

+7.5¢

0¢

100–129

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

2¢

98¢

+1.1¢

0¢

70–99

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

1¢

99¢

+0.7¢

0¢

<70

YesNo

0.5¢

99.5¢

1¢

99¢

+0.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.17 02:22 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market experienced a drastic repricing on March 14th (jumping from 46c to 90c), strongly implying a major tornado outbreak occurred in the US during mid-March (approx. March 13-14), causing a surge in recorded counts. Given that March is the start of the tornado season and NCEI uses 'preliminary data' (often higher counts), if the mid-month count is already near or above 100, the remaining half of the month only needs average activity to easily breach the 150 threshold. Thus, '150+' is now the overwhelming favorite, and the current price of 84c is slightly undervalued relative to the near-certain fundamentals.

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Movers

March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of the '150+' option skyrocketed from 46.5c to 90c, driven by a suspected major meteorological event (tornado outbreak) that fundamentally reversed market expectations for the monthly count. March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of the '130–149' option plunged from 24.5c to 7c, as the '150+' option became the dominant outcome, squeezing the probability space for other intervals.

How many Tornadoes in the US in March? - AI Odds Analysis

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