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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Tisza 6-9%
YesNo
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
YesNo
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
YesNo
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
YesNo
Tisza 9%+
YesNo
Other
YesNo
Tisza 0-3%
YesNo
Tisza 3-6%
YesNo
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 18:04 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While polls show Tisza leading by 12-14% among 'decided voters,' supporting the high price of 'Tisza 9%+', the market is neglecting Fidesz's historical mobilization capacity and the 'shy voter' effect. In 2022, Fidesz significantly outperformed polls. Assuming a standard 5-7% polling error in favor of the incumbent, Tisza's actual margin would compress to the 3-9% range. Currently, 'Tisza 3-6%' (6.5c) and 'Tisza 6-9%' (18.5c) are priced significantly below model estimates. The 3-6% option, in particular, is extremely undervalued as a hedge against polling errors. The model posits Tisza's overall win probability around 80% (higher than the market's 73%), but the margin distribution should be weighted more towards a moderate victory rather than a landslide.
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Divergence
Significant structural divergence exists. Mainstream polls (e.g., IDEA, 21 Research Center) show Tisza leading by 12-14% among 'decided voters,' underpinning the high market price for 'Tisza 9%+.' However, the same polls show Tisza's lead shrinking to 8-9% within the 'all voters' (including undecided) sample. The market pricing appears fully anchored to the optimistic 'decided voter' data, neglecting that 'all voter' data often better predicts the final tally (considering Fidesz's mobilization network and the conservative lean of undecideds). This results in the 'Tisza 3-9%' middle range being undervalued by the market.
