All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
19 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Latest data (March 16, 2026) indicates Hyperliquid's (HL) Open Interest (OI) has climbed to a monthly high of ~$6.71B, widening the gap against its closest rival Aster (~$2.04B) and Lighter (~$0.7B). The deficit has grown from ~$3B to over $4.6B (a 3.3x lead). While the 'at any point' resolution rule carries tail risk, and Aster has historically shown volume spikes, OI is a stickier metric indicating capital retention. Given the massive absolute gap, the probability of a competitor engineering a 'flip' via short-term incentives is lower than the market suggests. The current price of 17.5 cents overvalues this risk; fair value is estimated around 13 cents.
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Exotics
This is a market share competition question specific to the crypto derivatives sector. While very niche (exotic) for the general public, Hyperliquid's dominance is a hot topic for crypto natives and DeFi traders. Thus, it ranks as moderately exotic.
Hedging
HYPE
This event is directly related to the fundamentals of Hyperliquid and its ecosystem token (HYPE). If Hyperliquid is flipped in 2026 (Yes result), it would be a strong signal of weakening competitive moats, likely causing a drop in HYPE price (Score 3). Competitors (like dYdX or Solana-based DEXs like Jupiter/Drift) might benefit, though the correlation is weaker. The impact on broad market assets (BTC/ETH) is negligible.
