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Outcomes
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Value
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Terri Pickens
YesNo
Maxine Durand
YesNo
Jill Kirkham
YesNo
Chanelle Torrez
YesNo
Stephen Heidt
YesNo
AI Insights:
8 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Terri Pickens is all but confirmed as the sole candidate (confirmed by Stephen Heidt's price crash), the core risk lies in the market rules. Idaho law dictates that if there is only one candidate, the race often does not appear on the primary ballot (meaning the primary technically does not 'take place'), and the candidate is certified automatically. Under the rule 'If no... Primary takes place... resolve to Other,' this could result in all specific candidate options settling at 0. However, current pricing (Pickens 76c) suggests traders are betting on the 'Nominee = Winner' common-sense outcome rather than a strict rule interpretation. Given this legal technicality, Pickens' fair value is heavily discounted (set at 55c), while other non-filed candidates (Durand, Torrez, etc.) are worth 0.
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Exotics
This is a niche political market. Idaho is a deeply Republican state, making its Democratic primary largely inconsequential on the national stage and often low-stakes even locally. Compared to presidential elections or swing-state governorships, this event lacks broad appeal and liquidity, catering only to hardcore political junkies.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists between market pricing and fundamental reality. In reality, the filing deadline has passed, meaning candidates other than Terri Pickens (Durand, Torrez, Kirkham) likely have a 0% chance of winning. However, prediction markets still assign them a combined implied probability of ~40% (collective price ~40c). This liquidity lag or mispricing creates a massive divergence.
