All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
June 30
YesNo
April 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 19:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The 'March 31' option has only 14 days remaining. Without active mass unrest, completing the complex administrative and legal cycle from 'protest outbreak' to 'loss of control' to 'presidential invocation' within two weeks is physically improbable, pushing fair value near zero (~1c). The 'June 30' option (12.5c) prices in the optionality of spring protests, but lacks immediate catalysts, trading slightly above fair value (11c). The 'December 31' option (29c) is supported by midterm election year uncertainty, but as Q1 concludes peacefully, time decay suggests a mean reversion to a fair value around 25c.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'March 31: No' (Current Price 97.5c)
Plan Description:
This is a Low Risk Yield opportunity. While the nominal return is only 2.5c, given there are only 14 days to expiration and no signs of major civil unrest, the probability of 'Yes' is extremely low. The strategy essentially shorts the residual 'junk time' value left by tail-risk hedging. With an annualized yield of ~67% and short capital lockup, it suits short-term idle capital.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 66.8%
Exotics
This is a prediction market targeting an extreme political tail risk. While not as standard as 'election winner,' discussions regarding the use of the military in domestic affairs have persisted in the context of a Trump presidency, making this topic a serious political scenario rather than a complete absurdity.
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
BTC
Gold
S&P 500
Invoking the Insurrection Act implies a significant breakdown of domestic order or a constitutional crisis in the US, representing a classic 'black swan' event. Equities (S&P 500) would face severe risk-off selling, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold could benefit as 'chaos hedge' assets. The impact of such political turmoil is strong enough to alter short-term macro asset trends.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market pricing (~29% annual probability) is far higher than mainstream political observers' expectations for such an extreme measure as the Insurrection Act (typically viewed as a <5% tail risk). This divergence reflects a specific 'Trump Premium' on unconventional governance priced in by market participants, as well as capital using this market as a macro-hedge rather than a pure probability forecast.
