The rules define 'diplomatic meeting' to include indirect meetings via authorized intermediaries but exclude remote ones. Resolution depends on the US State Department's regional classification for 'Other' categories. Risk arises from disputes over whether indirect talks qualify and delays in official acknowledgment.

Easing tensions or new diplomatic engagements between the US and Iran often impact global crude oil prices. If a meeting occurs and progresses, it could signal potential sanctions relief, increasing oil supply and causing a moderate impact on crude oil prices.

Between April 12, 2026, and April 15, 2026, the price of Pakistan surged from 52.5c to 88.5c for unknown reasons, highly likely due to market manipulation or irrational trading. Between April 12, 2026, and April 13, 2026, the price of 'No Meeting by June 30' crashed from 23c to 4.95c, eventually sliding to 1.8c, which strongly deviates from geopolitical common sense. Between April 12, 2026, and April 13, 2026, the price of Oman crashed from 45.5c to 0.75c. Between April 12, 2026, and April 13, 2026, the price of Qatar crashed from 45.5c to 0.8c. Between April 12, 2026, and April 13, 2026, the price of Switzerland crashed from 45.5c to 11.35c, continuing to fall to 3.8c.

The prediction market currently indicates Pakistan (88.5%) as the venue for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, which is completely disconnected from mainstream geopolitical analysis. Historically, Oman, Qatar, and even Switzerland have been the primary channels for US-Iran contacts. Given Pakistan's own internal challenges and its non-traditional role in US-Iran mediation, the market's pricing is extremely irrational and shows a severe divergence from expert consensus.

High risk. The rules dictate that resolution is strictly based on an 'official announcement,' not the de facto end of the blockade. If maritime traffic actually resumes but the US government does not issue an announcement using the explicitly required definitive language, the market will still resolve to 'No.' Disputes over whether a statement constitutes 'unambiguous language' are highly likely.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint. An announcement lifting the blockade would deliver a structural shock to macro markets: Crude Oil prices would plummet on restored supply expectations; the alleviation of inflation and supply chain fears would trigger a strong rally in equities (S&P 500) and lower the US 10Y Yield. Simultaneously, the rapid evaporation of the geopolitical risk premium would spark a significant sell-off in safe havens like Gold.

April 12, 2026 - April 15, 2026: The Yes price for April 15 plummeted from 40c to 3c, April 17 dropped from 49.5c to 22c, and April 19 fell from 49.5c to 25.5c. This was caused by the passage of time without any official announcements of an agreement or blockade lift, destroying short-term expectations. Meanwhile, the Yes price for April 30 surged from 49c to 62.5c, reflecting the market shifting its expected timeline for the blockade lift to late April.

Predicting the exact number of solar or geomagnetic storms within a specific week is a highly niche and exotic topic for the general public, mostly appealing to geeks, science enthusiasts, or professional meteorologists.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the '<3' option bounced back from 36c to 50c, while '7' and '8+' fluctuated between 20c and 26c, as the market fiercely debated whether the final event count would break into the higher tiers as expiration nears, exacerbated by massive illiquidity. April 14, 2026 00:00 - April 14, 2026 17:00, the price of the '<3' option fell from 51c to 31c, while the '3' option fell from 38.15c to 30c, the '7' option fell from 35.5c to 22.5c, and the '8+' option fell from 38.15c to 20.55c, as the market continuously adjusted expectations based on the latest space weather forecasts a few days before expiration, with illiquidity causing severe price fluctuations. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '<3' option surged from 12.5c to over 82c, while the '8+' option violently fluctuated between 10c and 42c, as the market aggressively corrected its early-week forecasts, likely reacting to updated space weather data. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, prices for options 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8+ plummeted from the 40-50c range down to the 6-21c range. The reason is market participants stepping in to correct the absurdly high prices caused by extreme illiquidity and initial mispricing, bringing them closer to a realistic probability distribution.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' climbed from 75c to 97.5c, while 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' plummeted from 21c to 2.5c. This occurred because, as the tracking week neared its end, the accumulation of Spotify daily streaming data established an absolute lead for 'SWIM', completely erasing any remaining market doubts. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' dropped from 89c to 74c, and 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' rebounded from 10.5c to 21c, indicating a slight market reassessment of the final stream gap, likely due to daily updates narrowing the distance. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' surged from 34c to 86c. The reason is that as Spotify's daily streaming data for the week was gradually released, the song showed an unassailable lead in global streams. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' plummeted from 61.5c to 11c as its actual streaming numbers were vastly outperformed by 'SWIM - BTS'. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the prices of multiple songs including 'Risk It All - Bruno Mars', 'End of Beginning - Djo', 'Raindance', and 'Dracula' collapsed from 40c+ to under 1c, reflecting that after the latest streaming data updates, their chances of taking the weekly #1 spot were completely eliminated.