Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Iran leader end of 2026' market, specifically analyzing the implied probabilities and bid-ask spreads for Mojtaba Khamenei and Masoud Pezeshkian. Crucially, verify if the current Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) is a valid option (or covered by 'Other') and assess the risk of a 'No Head of State' resolution or rule dispute if he remains in power through 2026.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Iran leader end of 2026' market, specifically analyzing the implied probabilities and bid-ask spreads for Mojtaba Khamenei and Masoud Pezeshkian. Crucially, verify if the current Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) is a valid option (or covered by 'Other') and assess the risk of a 'No Head of State' resolution or rule dispute if he remains in power through 2026.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for recent credible intelligence reports regarding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's health status and internal maneuvering within the Assembly of Experts and the IRGC. Identify which candidate (e.g., Mojtaba Khamenei or a military figure) is currently favored by the 'Deep State' security apparatus for the succession.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for recent credible intelligence reports regarding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's health status and internal maneuvering within the Assembly of Experts and the IRGC. Identify which candidate (e.g., Mojtaba Khamenei or a military figure) is currently favored by the 'Deep State' security apparatus for the succession.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the resolution date of December 31, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of capital for this long-term bet. Compare the potential ROI of betting on current favorites against the compounded returns of holding risk-free assets (e.g., US Treasuries or stablecoin yields) over the next 2+ years to determine if the trade offers positive expected value.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the resolution date of December 31, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of capital for this long-term bet. Compare the potential ROI of betting on current favorites against the compounded returns of holding risk-free assets (e.g., US Treasuries or stablecoin yields) over the next 2+ years to determine if the trade offers positive expected value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Iran leader end of 2026?

World|$7.1m Vol|

242 days 0 hrs

Iran leader end of 2026? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 13 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+1¢

Reza Pahlavi(No)

+0.7¢

Ali Asghar Hejazi(Yes)

+0.7¢

Muhammad Mirbaqiri(Yes)

Iran leader end of 2026? AI analysis: • +1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The implied probability for Mojtaba Khamenei remains stable around 65%, cementing his position as th...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Reza Pahlavi

YesNo

11¢

89¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+1¢

Ali Asghar Hejazi

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

1¢

99¢

+0.7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 30 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

Gold

Crude Oil

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for crude oil transport. If the succession process is smooth, market reaction may be muted; however, if it leads to civil war, a coup, or a power vacuum (resolving to a non-establishment figure or 'No Head of State'), it would trigger significant oil supply fears and spike prices. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty would boost Gold as a safe-haven asset.