All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mojtaba Khamenei
YesNo
Reza Pahlavi
YesNo
No Head of State
YesNo
Ali Motahari
YesNo
Hassan Rouhani
YesNo
Masoud Pezeshkian
YesNo
Hassan Khomeini
YesNo
Maryam Rajavi
YesNo
Sadegh Larijani
YesNo
Mohammad Khatami
YesNo
Ali Asghar Hejazi
YesNo
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
YesNo
Alireza Arafi
YesNo
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
YesNo
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
YesNo
Abbas Araghchi
YesNo
Reza Pirzadeh
YesNo
Ahmad Vahidi
YesNo
Navid Shomali
YesNo
Massoud Rajavi
YesNo
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
YesNo
Nasir Hosseini
YesNo
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
YesNo
Sadegh Mahsouli
YesNo
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
YesNo
Hassan Shariatmadari
YesNo
Mohsen Araki
YesNo
Saeed Jalili
YesNo
Mustafa Hijri
YesNo
AI Insights:
16 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Mojtaba Khamenei has been officially announced as Supreme Leader (per search results), the market is heavily discounting him (trading at 37c) due to rumors of injury/disappearance following airstrikes. However, as the officially designated successor, provided he is not deceased, he has the highest probability of consolidating power by late 2026, warranting a fair value above 50c. Reza Pahlavi (14.5c) is grossly overvalued; lacking a domestic military or political base, his chances of overthrowing the regime and establishing de facto rule within 9 months are negligible (<1%). Masoud Pezeshkian (1.9c), as sitting President and member of the interim council, is undervalued given his constitutional role as a caretaker if Mojtaba is incapacitated. 'No Head of State' remains a reasonable hedge against civil war or a prolonged power vacuum.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on Reza Pahlavi (Current Price 85.5c)
Plan Description:
This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. Reza Pahlavi has been in exile for decades and possesses no control over Iran's domestic armed forces (IRGC/Artesh). Even in the event of a regime collapse, power would likely fall to a military strongman or an interim council rather than an exiled monarch. The market's implied 14.5% probability is detached from geopolitical reality. Buying 'No' is nearly risk-free arbitrage with an annualized return of approximately 21%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 14¢
|Annualized yield: 21.5%
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for crude oil transport. If the succession process is smooth, market reaction may be muted; however, if it leads to civil war, a coup, or a power vacuum (resolving to a non-establishment figure or 'No Head of State'), it would trigger significant oil supply fears and spike prices. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty would boost Gold as a safe-haven asset.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. First, the market assigns a 14.5% probability to the exiled Reza Pahlavi, whereas mainstream geopolitical analysis views his chances of assuming power as near zero; this represents retail 'wishful thinking'. Second, Mojtaba Khamenei, despite being the officially announced Supreme Leader, trades at only 37%, reflecting extreme market skepticism regarding his survival status, while the official narrative insists on a smooth transition. If Mojtaba is indeed alive, the current price is subject to a massive correction.
