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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
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Value
Edge
March 18
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 30
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 19
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the March 2026 conflict context, while Iran previously launched high-frequency attacks on Gulf states, recent intelligence (March 16) indicates a 'de-escalation' in volume and a shift to 'calculated' targeting rather than saturation barrages. Given the strict market resolution excluding 'intercepted' strikes (Intercepted = No) and reports that Gulf defense systems are 'largely effective', the probability of a 'non-intercepted soil impact' on any specific single day is lower than the current market pricing (40-45%). As attack frequency drops, the edge lies significantly with 'No'.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
This event represents an extreme macro black swan. A 'Yes' resolution implies direct military conflict between Iran and Gulf oil producers (Saudi, UAE), escalating beyond typical proxy skirmishes. This would directly threaten energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, causing a structural shock to Crude Oil prices, a surge in Gold as a safe haven, and a sharp sell-off in global equities due to war panic and inflation fears.
Divergence
Market pricing (45% Yes) implies a near coin-flip probability of a 'successful, non-intercepted' strike daily. However, mainstream reporting indicates de-escalating attack numbers and effective defense systems. The market is overestimating the marginal probability of a 'clean hit'.
