All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 19
YesNo
March 18
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 30
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:18 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 17, 2026, the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran is in its 18th day. The confirmed assassination of top Iranian officials Ali Larijani and Basij commander Soleimani in Tehran by Israel on March 17 creates a near-certainty of immediate retaliation, justifying a premium fair value (>80%) for the immediate timeframe (March 18). Although the market rule excludes intercepted missiles, the current attrition rate of ~10 launches per day suggests a statistical probability of ~40-50% for at least one successful ground impact daily, accounting for leakage through air defense systems.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There are significant gray areas in resolution. 1. Attribution challenges: Distinguishing between launches from 'Iranian territory' versus proxy forces (e.g., Iraqi militias/Hezbollah) can be difficult in the fog of war, leading to conflicting initial reports. 2. Definition of Interception: While rules exclude 'intercepted' missiles, a missile that penetrates air defense but hits an empty field (technically impacting 'Israeli ground territory') rather than a military target creates ambiguity on whether it counts as a qualifying 'strike'. 3. Geography: The exclusion of the West Bank may cause disputes for border-region impacts.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
S&P 500
A direct attack by Iran from its own soil (not proxies) would be viewed as a major escalation, potentially triggering a regional war. This panic would directly impact global crude supply expectations, causing oil prices to spike (Crude Oil), while capital would flow into safe havens (Gold) and risk assets (S&P 500) would sell off. This serves as a 'Black Swan' hedge with high asymmetric return potential.
