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Outcomes
Market
Price
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Value
Value
Edge
March 18
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 19
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 30
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:13 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The context is set in March 2026 during the hypothetical 'Operation Lion's Roar' (Joint US-Israel attack on Iran). Despite the active war, the current 'Yes' prices (~40-52c) are grossly overvalued. Reasons: 1. Rules strictly exclude proxies (Houthis), counting only direct Iranian military action; 2. With US/Israel dominating air/sea domains, direct Iranian naval sorties against commercial shipping would be suicidal and unlikely to 'succeed' (evade interception); 3. The negligible volume ($6.25) indicates these prices are invalid noise or default settings, not smart money. Fair value is low (~10-15%), reflecting that successful direct attacks remain low-probability outliers even in war.
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Rule Risk
There is a significant rule trap. While the premise seems simple, the definition of 'Iranian forces' is strict, explicitly excluding proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah), which contradicts common media narratives that often conflate proxy attacks with Iran. Additionally, the strike must successfully impact or seize the vessel; intercepted attacks do not count, significantly lowering the probability of 'Yes'. The requirement for explicit claims or territorial origin confirmation sets a high evidentiary bar.
Exotics
This is a moderately exotic market. While Middle East geopolitics is a common topic, predicting a direct kinetic strike by Iran (not proxies) on a specific commercial vessel on a specific date is a highly specific 'tail risk' prediction. It moves beyond mainstream discourse into the realm of specialized intelligence forecasting.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
If Iran were to directly attack commercial shipping (bypassing proxies), it would represent a major escalation in conflict, likely causing a spike in Crude Oil prices (supply disruption fears) and Gold (safe-haven demand). While currently a specific event prediction, any confirmed direct action would immediately trigger market fears regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, giving this high hedging value.
Divergence
Market prices imply a ~40-50% daily probability of direct Iranian attacks on shipping, which sharply diverges from strategic war logic (military assets prioritize defense or military targets, not daily commercial raids) and historical baselines. The divergence is driven by illiquidity.
