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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
December 31
YesNo
May 15
YesNo
April 30
YesNo
April 15
YesNo
June 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 21:04 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 17, 2026. 1. 'March 15' is expired and worthless. 2. 'March 31' is significantly overvalued (currently 9.5c). Per rules, a 14-day silence must occur. To meet the March 31 deadline, this silence must begin *today* (March 17) at the latest. Given reports of 'overnight trading strikes' and the Strait of Hormuz closure in the last 72 hours, the probability of an immediate and perfect ceasefire starting today is negligible. 3. Mid-term options (April/May) have retraced, reflecting a market correction from 'crippled Iran leads to instant peace' optimism back to a 'grinding but lower intensity conflict' reality. Fair values are set slightly below market to account for diplomatic lag.
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Rule Risk
The definition of 'continuous 14-day period without military action' is complex. Key risks include: 1. Exclusion of proxy actions (Hezbollah, Houthis), which contradicts the public intuition of conflict 'ending' since proxy warfare is often continuous. 2. The requirement for 'official acknowledgment' or 'consensus of credible reporting' can be problematic in an information warfare context, leading to disputes over the origin of attacks (e.g., whether it originated from Iranian soil).
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
S&P 500
This event is directly tied to Middle East geopolitical stability and is highly sensitive for Crude Oil prices. Failure to resolve (i.e., not meeting the 14-day peace window) implies escalation, boosting oil and safe-haven assets (Gold). Conversely, confirming a peace window would remove the risk premium, benefiting equities. It has significant hedging value.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, prices for 'May 15' and 'April 30' dropped by ~12c (67.5c->55.5c) and ~11.5c (54c->42.5c) respectively. The reason is the initial euphoria surrounding the March 13 reports of 'crippled Iranian missile capabilities' faded. As ground hostilities persisted (e.g., continued Strait blockade) over the following days, investors reassessed the timeline for a ceasefire, selling off overly optimistic short-term positions.
March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, 'April 30' surged from 42.5c to 54c. This was driven by capital fleeing March positions following confirmed strikes, piling into late April bets based on optimistic US defense reports suggesting a quick end to the conflict.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Market pricing implies a near 10% chance for 'March 31', which disconnects from the reality that the required silence period must begin *today* amidst reports of ongoing skirmishes. Mathematically, a single confirmed strike today kills this option, yet the market retains a premium. Additionally, mainstream reporting on the Strait of Hormuz closure typically implies a prolonged geopolitical standoff, whereas the >55% odds for May 15 suggest the market is optimistically betting on a rapid resolution to a major crisis within a month.
