Retrieve the latest intelligence reports and news on Israel-Iran tensions for March 2026. Visit the Polymarket page to examine the thin order book (Volume ~$51) and bid-ask spread. Update the assessment of fair value for a 'Yes' outcome, specifically weighing the high threshold of *official military* confirmation against the exclusion clauses for Mossad-only operations or airstrikes.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest intelligence reports and news on Israel-Iran tensions for March 2026. Visit the Polymarket page to examine the thin order book (Volume ~$51) and bid-ask spread. Update the assessment of fair value for a 'Yes' outcome, specifically weighing the high threshold of *official military* confirmation against the exclusion clauses for Mossad-only operations or airstrikes.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for any reported 'covert ops' or 'sabotage' inside Iran since February 28, 2026, and verify the specific attribution (IDF vs. Mossad). Analyze whether recent reporting uses language that could trigger a 'Yes' resolution based on the 'overwhelming consensus' clause, or if all incidents strictly fall under the 'non-military intelligence activity' exclusion.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for any reported 'covert ops' or 'sabotage' inside Iran since February 28, 2026, and verify the specific attribution (IDF vs. Mossad). Analyze whether recent reporting uses language that could trigger a 'Yes' resolution based on the 'overwhelming consensus' clause, or if all incidents strictly fall under the 'non-military intelligence activity' exclusion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the market's negligible volume ($51) and illiquid status, provide a strategy for placing 'Stink Bids' (deeply discounted limit orders). Calculate a target entry price that justifies the capital lock-up risk until April 30, avoiding the high slippage traps of market orders in such a thin market.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the market's negligible volume ($51) and illiquid status, provide a strategy for placing 'Stink Bids' (deeply discounted limit orders). Calculate a target entry price that justifies the capital lock-up risk until April 30, avoiding the high slippage traps of market orders in such a thin market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Geopolitics|$51 Vol|

42 days 4 hrs

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

April 30

YesNo

41.5¢

58.5¢

42¢

58¢

+0.5¢

0¢

March 31

YesNo

37¢

63¢

37¢

63¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.17 23:15 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Given the extremely low liquidity (volume of only 51), current prices do not fully represent efficient market consensus. However, the pricing structure reveals a strong sense of urgency: approximately 89% (37%) of the probability assigned to the April contract (41.5%) is already captured within the March contract. This implies the market believes that if a ground operation occurs, it is imminent (within the next 14 days), with very low probability (~4.5% marginal prob) of it initiating strictly after March. Fair value is temporarily anchored to current prices, with a caveat on liquidity.

Sign up to view more information

Hedging

Crude Oil

US 10Y Yield

Gold

S&P 500

Bitcoin

An Israeli ground operation inside Iran would be viewed as a major escalation of war, directly threatening oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz and likely causing a structural shock to Crude Oil prices. Panic would drive capital into safe havens like Gold and US Treasuries (lowering yields), while triggering a sell-off in risk assets like equities.

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner