All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 19
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 30
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 18
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Search results from March 2026 indicate Israel is conducting 'near-daily' airstrikes on Greater Beirut, with recent strikes confirmed on the night of Mar 16/17. While half of Mar 18 has passed, the probability of an evening/overnight strike remains high. For full days like Mar 19 onwards, the 'full-scale war' context suggests a base strike probability of 60-70%, significantly undervaluing the current market price of ~40%.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in the ambiguity of resolution criteria: 1. The definition of 'Greater Beirut' relies on a specific academic map rather than standard administrative boundaries, making borderline strikes hard to verify. 2. The rules exclude interceptions, but distinguishing between a 'successful missile impact' and 'damage from interception debris' is notoriously difficult in real-time warfare, and official reports are often propagandized, complicating the required 'consensus of credible reporting'.
Hedging
Crude Oil
A direct Israeli air strike on Beirut would be interpreted as a significant escalation in the geopolitical conflict. This sentiment would immediately transmit to the Crude Oil market (fears of supply disruption), causing a tradable price spike. Gold would likely see a minor reaction as a safe haven, while equity markets (like the S&P 500) might experience a short-term risk-off dip.
Divergence
Market pricing (~41%) implies uncertainty or intermittent strikes, whereas mainstream media reporting ('war', 'near-daily bombardment') describes a high-intensity, continuous air campaign. This gap suggests the market is significantly undervaluing the 'Yes' outcome.
