The sum of implied probabilities for all listed options is extremely low (around 26%), strongly sugg...

2026-03-27 19:00 - 2026-03-30 12:00, ONE PIECE: Season 2's price plummeted from 28.5c to 7c, indicating its viewership likely fell well short of expectations, losing momentum for the global #2 spot. 2026-03-27 06:00 - 2026-03-30 12:00, Love is Blind: The Reunion's price crashed from 23c to 1.55c, likely because an initial viewership spike proved unsustainable. 2026-03-27 06:00 - 2026-03-30 12:00, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic's price fell from 20.5c to 1.35c, indicating the stand-up special's initial buzz did not last. 2026-03-27 06:00 - 2026-03-30 12:00, The Dinosaurs: Season 1's price crashed from 21c to 9.35c, showing its popularity faded rapidly towards the end of the tracking week. 2026-03-26 21:20 - 2026-03-27 01:40, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series's price spiked from 2.8c to 21.5c, then fell back to 1.3c over the next few days, showing the documentary's viral moment was extremely brief. 2026-03-25 10:40 - 2026-03-25 23:40, Age of Attraction: Season 1's price plummeted from 39c to 5.5c, showing its performance during the critical tracking week fell far short of competing for global #2.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for all listed options. Since the #1 movie is highly likely to be the unlisted 'Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man', all listed options will resolve to 'No'. Plan Description: The 'No' prices for the options range from 98.7c to 99.6c. Buying a single 'No' share yields a profi...

Based on the latest streaming data, 'Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man' has consistently dominated th...

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Buenos Aires Ezeiza airport (SAEZ) o...

March 29, 2026, the price of 31°C surged from 13.5c to 34c, driven by irrational buying in an illiquid market. March 29, 2026, the price of 35°C or higher spiked from 2.05c to 25.25c, similarly indicating extreme weather speculation or poor liquidity manipulation. March 29, 2026, prices for 27°C, 29°C, and 30°C also saw wild swings of over 10c, reflecting high sensitivity to shifting short-term forecasts and capital wrestling as the expiration date approaches.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream weather forecasts. Major meteorological sources predict a high of 27°C to 29°C for Buenos Aires on April 1, yet Polymarket participants are heavily pricing in 31°C and 35°C+ (combining for nearly 60% probability), completely detaching from scientific short-term forecasting reality.

Based on the latest market data and the close of the tracking week (last Thursday night), the Yes pr...

Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026: The price of 'SWIM - BTS' climbed steadily from 87.5c to 99.3c. With the tracking week concluded and early predictions out, its #1 debut is practically confirmed. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026: The price of 'SWIM - BTS' climbed further from 94c to 99c. As the tracking week ended, its overwhelming data advantage convinced the market of its #1 debut. Mar 25, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026: The price of 'SWIM - BTS' continuously surged from 32c to 88c, driven by overwhelming data from highly organized fan campaigns following the release of their new single, virtually solidifying market expectations for a #1 debut. Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026: The price of 'Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley' crashed from 91c to 8c as BTS's strong entry shattered expectations of its continued reign, leading to rapid capital outflow. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026: Multiple non-contender options, including 'Man I Need', 'I Just Might', and 'Ordinary', collectively collapsed from ~49c to 1-2c. This was a market correction of a severely inefficient state where total probabilities exceeded 300%.

Based on mainstream weather forecasts from AccuWeather and NWS, the high temperature at LaGuardia on...

On March 29, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' surged from 9.5c to 28.5c, '69°F or below' plummeted from 25.5c to 10.5c, and '86-87°F' dropped from 18c to 2.9c. This was driven by converging meteorological model consensus on the strength of a warm air ridge, largely ruling out a cold Canadian trough (below 69°F) and extreme anomalous heat (above 86°F), causing capital to cluster in the low 80s range.

Divergence exists. First, the total implied probability in the market is near 191%, indicating irrational retail overbuying. Second, mainstream meteorological outlets (like AccuWeather and NWS) are forecasting a high around 74-78°F for LaGuardia on April 1, whereas the highest-priced options on Polymarket are 82-83°F and 80-81°F. This shows speculative capital heavily over-betting on a strong warming anomaly, deviating from baseline deterministic weather forecasts.