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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 30
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
March 18
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
March 19
YesNo
AI Insights:
14 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Following the latest ceasefire agreement effective October 2025 (after the March 2025 resurgence of hostilities), Gaza is currently in a state of relatively low-intensity 'cold peace'. While sporadic drone or targeted strikes remain possible, the baseline probability of a daily 'military action' (Yes) should be significantly lower than the current market pricing (approx. 42%) in the absence of renewed full-scale hostilities. The extremely low trading volume ($2.5) suggests current prices are driven by illiquidity rather than genuine consensus. Fair value is adjusted down to ~15% to reflect sporadic risks during a ceasefire.
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Rule Risk
The rules are highly specific, which paradoxically increases risk. For instance, 'drone, missile, or air strike' counts, but 'artillery fire' or 'FPV' strikes are excluded. In the fog of war, distinguishing between a small missile and an artillery shell, or an FPV drone versus a larger loitering munition, can be difficult based solely on media reports. This technical ambiguity creates potential for resolution disputes, especially when relying on media consensus.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream consensus (based on the geopolitical situation since October 2025) suggests Gaza is in a ceasefire period where large-scale airstrikes should not be the norm. However, the prediction market prices a daily strike probability as high as 42%, disconnecting from the reality of the 'cold peace'. This divergence is likely a pricing failure caused by a lack of active participants and liquidity drying up.
