All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
June 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 16:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite the ongoing Operation 'Roaring Lion', time decay is increasingly pressuring the March 31 option. With only 18 days remaining, Israel has demonstrated strategic discipline by concentrating firepower on Iranian soil and Southern Lebanon over the past week, rather than prioritizing immediate retaliation against Yemen. While geopolitical tension is extreme, the Houthi's current 'hunkering down' strategy reduces the necessity for an imminent (March) Israeli strike. Conversely, the long-term risk for June 30 remains elevated, as it is highly probable Israel will eventually clear its southern flank (Yemen) during a months-long total war scenario. The current market pricing for March 31 (46.5c) slightly overestimates the probability of a short-term outbreak, overlooking the Israeli Air Force's current bandwidth constraints.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
ZIM
Gold
A direct Israeli strike on Yemen (Houthis) would significantly escalate the Red Sea shipping crisis, directly threatening a key oil transit chokepoint (Bab el-Mandeb), making Crude Oil the most impacted asset. Gold would benefit as a safe haven. Additionally, shipping stocks (like ZIM) are highly sensitive to Red Sea tensions; escalation typically drives up freight rates and thus stock prices.
Movers
2026-03-09 to 2026-03-13, the March 31 option experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 67c to 32.5c (Mar 11) before rebounding to 46.5c; the June 30 option also corrected from 82.5c to 72c. This was caused by the market realizing that while the full-scale Israel-Iran war had begun, the conflict did not 'instantly' engulf Yemen as expected, leading to a panic sell-off of short-term speculative positions followed by a corrective rebound due to continued uncertainty.
2026-03-02 to 2026-03-05, the March 31 price corrected from 78.5c to 63.5c as, despite the Israel-Iran war outbreak, the Houthis did not immediately join with full force, choosing instead to fortify defenses, cooling market bets on an 'immediate strike'.
2026-02-27 to 2026-03-02, the March 31 price skyrocketed from 40.5c to 78.5c due to the commencement of US-Israel military operations against Iran (Operation 'Epic Fury'), leading to panic betting on immediate conflict contagion to Yemen.
2026-02-22 to 2026-02-24, the June 30 price surged from 44.5c to 57.5c as market sentiment reheated following geopolitical rhetoric after a brief calm.
