[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest White House progress on the Fed Chair successor nomination (e.g., Senate hearing schedules) and compare the order book depth and spread for the 'March 31' vs. 'May 14' options on Polymarket. Analyze whether the market is pricing in an 'early resignation for transition' or simply the natural expiration of his term.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Rule Pitfall] Key Timeline Check: Search official Federal Reserve documents or the U.S. Code to verify the exact legal expiration date of Powell's current term (commonly cited as May 2026). Specifically confirm: If he serves until the very last day of his statutory term (e.g., May 15), will the 'Out by May 14' option resolve to 'No'? Is there a risk of misjudgment based on a one-day difference?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the exit records of past Fed Chairs over the last 30 years (e.g., Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan) to calculate the frequency of them resigning 'a few days or weeks early' before their statutory term ends to facilitate a successor's transition. Does historical data support the narrative that Chairs usually leave early, thereby favoring the 'Yes' side?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$1.6m Vol|

56 days 6 hrs

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

May 14

YesNo

2.6¢

97.4¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.6¢

March 31

YesNo

0.6¢

99.4¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

AI Insights:

03.17 17:05 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Today is March 17, 2026, with only 14 days remaining until the March 31 settlement and less than two months until May 14. Powell's term officially ends on May 15, 2026, and there are no rumors regarding early resignation or health issues. The slight price rebound in the last 24 hours (May 14 to 1.7c) is likely due to bid-ask spread noise in a low-liquidity environment rather than a fundamental shift. Given the rapid decay of time value (Theta), the fair value for 'March 31' is 0, and 'May 14' retains only a negligible tail-risk premium.

Sign up to view more information

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy 'No' for 'March 31' (Current price 99.45c)

Plan Description:

This is a low-risk yield opportunity (Soft Arb). With only 14 days until expiration for the 'March 31' option, buying 'No' at 99.45c yields a profit of 0.55c if Powell does not leave in the next two weeks (a highly probable outcome). This represents an annualized yield of approximately 14.4%, offering better returns and lower duration risk than the 'May 14' option.

Sign up to view more information

Arbitrage: 0.55¢

|

Annualized yield: 14.4%

Hedging

US 10Y Yield

Gold

Bitcoin

S&P 500

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner