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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
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Patrick Schmidt
YesNo
Sharice Davids
YesNo
Michael Soetaert
YesNo
Sandy Spidel Neumann
YesNo
Anne Parelkar
YesNo
Christy Davis
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 17:19 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Sharice Davids' price has plummeted recently due to market concerns over her focus on House duties (e.g., the March 11th launch of a district-specific FIFA World Cup initiative), the fundamentals remain unchanged: she is the only Kansas Democrat with statewide viability. Given the persistent threat of mid-decade redistricting by the GOP supermajority in the 2026 legislative session, the likelihood that Davids is forced to pivot to the Senate remains high. Media consensus views her as the 'only hope,' making the current 47.5c an oversold condition; fair value should recover to ~55c (pricing in her entry probability). Christy Davis, as a former USDA official and the primary fallback, retains ~20c hedge value.
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Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Sharice Davids' price plummeted from 64.5c to 47.5c. The driver was her high-profile launch of 'Johnson County United' (a district-specific initiative for the 2026 World Cup) on March 11, coupled with a March 10 announcement of federal funding for Princeton, KS. These district-entrenching actions were interpreted by the market as a signal of her commitment to retaining her House seat, causing a rapid cooling of Senate run speculation.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Davids previously surged from 30c to 50c driven by speculation surrounding her statewide listening tour (Topeka, Wichita).
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis (e.g., Cook Political Report, Let's Talk Elections) widely regards a Senate run by Sharice Davids as nearly inevitable due to the 'existential threat' of GOP redistricting, viewing her as the party's most viable candidate. However, the prediction market is pricing her at <50%, overreacting to her recent routine House constituent services and underestimating the structural political pressure forcing her entry.
