All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Vicki Schmidt
YesNo
Scott Schwab
YesNo
Philip Sarnecki
YesNo
Stacy Rogers
YesNo
Charlotte O’Hara
YesNo
Jeff Colyer
YesNo
Joy Eakins
YesNo
Ty Masterson
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 16:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Jeff Colyer remains the frontrunner, his 53c market price is still overvalued, ignoring the consolidation risk of an 'anti-establishment' lane in the primary. Ty Masterson, as Senate President, is underpriced relative to his political capital (fair value ~22c). The most significant mispricing remains Vicki Schmidt; at 1.5c, the market is pricing her as if she has already declined to run. As a sitting statewide official, her floor should be at least 10%. Philip Sarnecki, a potential self-funding dark horse, warrants a fair value upgrade to 10c following recent inflows.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
February 28, 2026 - March 1, 2026, Philip Sarnecki's price surged from 4.65c to 14.7c (a move >10c) before retracing to 9c on March 3. This sharp volatility likely stems from insider bets anticipating a self-funded campaign announcement, or a reaction to a single large buy order in an illiquid market.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Ty Masterson's price rose from 20.5c to 25c. While below the 10c threshold, this indicated an earlier market attempt to position him as the primary challenger to Colyer.
Divergence
The primary divergence concerns Vicki Schmidt. Mainstream political wisdom views a sitting Insurance Commissioner with statewide fundraising capacity as a top-tier or strong second-tier contender. However, the prediction market prices her at 1.5c (near zero), a severe disconnection from her real-world political stature, unless the market possesses insider knowledge of her declining to run that is not yet public.
