[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, specifically checking the campaign status of frontrunners like Jeff Colyer, and update the assessment of fair value and risks for the 'Other' option versus named candidates.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, specifically checking the campaign status of frontrunners like Jeff Colyer, and update the assessment of fair value and risks for the 'Other' option versus named candidates.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and local Kansas media (e.g., The Kansas City Star) to confirm which of the listed options (e.g., Charlotte O’Hara, Jeff Colyer) have officially filed paperwork to run in the 2026 election.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and local Kansas media (e.g., The Kansas City Star) to confirm which of the listed options (e.g., Charlotte O’Hara, Jeff Colyer) have officially filed paperwork to run in the 2026 election.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search the Kansas Secretary of State's official schedule to confirm the specific filing deadline for the 2026 Republican Primary, and assess the risk of capital lock-up before this date.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search the Kansas Secretary of State's official schedule to confirm the specific filing deadline for the 2026 Republican Primary, and assess the risk of capital lock-up before this date.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for early polling data specific to the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican Primary (e.g., from Remington Research Group) and compare it with current Polymarket odds.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for early polling data specific to the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican Primary (e.g., from Remington Research Group) and compare it with current Polymarket odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Search for key endorsements within the Kansas GOP, specifically checking if former President Trump or the Koch Network has signaled support for any candidate (e.g., Ty Masterson or Scott Schwab).

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Search for key endorsements within the Kansas GOP, specifically checking if former President Trump or the Koch Network has signaled support for any candidate (e.g., Ty Masterson or Scott Schwab).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Google Trends Analysis: Compare the Google Trends search interest within Kansas for Ty Masterson, Jeff Colyer, and Vicki Schmidt to determine who currently holds higher public awareness.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Google Trends Analysis: Compare the Google Trends search interest within Kansas for Ty Masterson, Jeff Colyer, and Vicki Schmidt to determine who currently holds higher public awareness.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Rule Pitfall & Historical Precedents: Search Kansas GOP primary history to verify if a 'run-off' mechanism exists, and confirm if the 'second round' mentioned in Polymarket rules is legally applicable in Kansas.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Rule Pitfall & Historical Precedents: Search Kansas GOP primary history to verify if a 'run-off' mechanism exists, and confirm if the 'second round' mentioned in Polymarket rules is legally applicable in Kansas.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for 'Why Jeff Colyer will not run for Kansas Governor 2026' and list the top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., health issues or political deals) that might stop the former Governor from running.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for 'Why Jeff Colyer will not run for Kansas Governor 2026' and list the top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., health issues or political deals) that might stop the former Governor from running.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Kansas political calendar, list potential catalysts (e.g., a formal campaign announcement press conference) that could cause volatility within the next 48 hours or week.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Kansas political calendar, list potential catalysts (e.g., a formal campaign announcement press conference) that could cause volatility within the next 48 hours or week.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Given the low volume of $31k, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $500 entry into a niche candidate like Joy Eakins.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Given the low volume of $31k, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $500 entry into a niche candidate like Joy Eakins.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter for recent tweets from Kansas political journalists (e.g., from the Kansas Reflector) and summarize their sentiment regarding the GOP primary frontrunners.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter for recent tweets from Kansas political journalists (e.g., from the Kansas Reflector) and summarize their sentiment regarding the GOP primary frontrunners.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search the Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission (KGEC) campaign finance reports to see which candidate is leading in fundraising as an indicator of 'smart money' support.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search the Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission (KGEC) campaign finance reports to see which candidate is leading in fundraising as an indicator of 'smart money' support.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Analyze current odds to determine if betting on 'Jeff Colyer' (former Governor) is 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds) or if betting 'Other' is 'buying a lottery ticket'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Analyze current odds to determine if betting on 'Jeff Colyer' (former Governor) is 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds) or if betting 'Other' is 'buying a lottery ticket'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comment section regarding the core disagreement on whether Senate President 'Ty Masterson' will pivot to run for Governor.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comment section regarding the core disagreement on whether Senate President 'Ty Masterson' will pivot to run for Governor.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the intensity of the 2018 Kansas GOP Primary (Colyer vs. Kobach) to analyze if the current primary is likely to mirror that historically tight race.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the intensity of the 2018 Kansas GOP Primary (Colyer vs. Kobach) to analyze if the current primary is likely to mirror that historically tight race.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the required excess return for locking up funds until August 2026, compared to the risk-free yield from lending stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave) over the same period.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the required excess return for locking up funds until August 2026, compared to the risk-free yield from lending stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave) over the same period.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) deep in the order book for illiquid options like Philip Sarnecki or Stacy Rogers to catch flash crashes caused by thin liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) deep in the order book for illiquid options like Philip Sarnecki or Stacy Rogers to catch flash crashes caused by thin liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., a candidate failing to file paperwork by June 1st) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate stop-loss exit.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., a candidate failing to file paperwork by June 1st) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate stop-loss exit.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Assuming you have 80% confidence that a candidate will receive a Trump endorsement based on inside info, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Assuming you have 80% confidence that a candidate will receive a Trump endorsement based on inside info, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or local news websites (e.g., Kansas Public Radio) dedicated to Kansas state politics for sourcing exclusive alpha for this market.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or local news websites (e.g., Kansas Public Radio) dedicated to Kansas state politics for sourcing exclusive alpha for this market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner

Elections|$37.5k Vol|

92 days 21 hrs

Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Found +19.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.18 09:58

Top Undervalued

+19.7¢

Joy Eakins(No)

+14.1¢

Stacy Rogers(No)

+3¢

Jeff Colyer(Yes)

Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +19.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

In recent days, Ty Masterson's price has surged dramatically from 17c to 47.5c, indicating he likely...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Joy Eakins

YesNo

19.7¢

80.3¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+19.7¢

Stacy Rogers

YesNo

15.1¢

84.9¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+14.1¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Ty Masterson's price surged from 17c to 47.5c, driven by market expectations of a major political endorsement or a sudden shift in the race dynamics, rapidly repricing him as a frontrunner. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, Vicki Schmidt's price surged from 2.25c to 23.9c, driven by rapidly increasing market expectations that she will officially announce her candidacy for the 2026 Kansas Republican gubernatorial primary, leading to a repricing of her advantage as a sitting statewide official. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Jeff Colyer's price plummeted from 54.5c to 34c, suggesting the market was overly optimistic about his inevitability, or rumors of a new entrant caused a capital flight. February 28, 2026 - March 1, 2026, Philip Sarnecki's price surged from 4.65c to 14.7c, driven by market bets on his capacity to self-fund a massive campaign operation.