Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is somewhat niche and novel for the general public, though it is a standard topic within prediction markets and weather derivatives.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of 25°C plummeted from 22c to 6c, as closer-to-date weather forecasts indicated higher potential temperatures. May 2, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of 26°C dropped from 42c to 29.5c, reflecting a slight upward shift in temperature modeling. May 2, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of 27°C rose from 24.5c to 39.5c, as updated forecasts made 27°C the most likely peak temperature. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of 28°C crashed from 37.5c to 12c, because actual conditions and refined forecasts failed to support extreme heat expectations as the date approached.

Relatively niche weather prediction market. While people check weather daily, placing financial bets on the exact maximum temperature of a specific city on a specific date down to 1°C is not something the general public typically participates in or thinks deeply about.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The prices for 11°C and 12°C rose from around 21c and 34c to 37c and 48c respectively, while the 13°C option plummeted from around 22c to 4c. This was driven by updated meteorological forecasts and real-time observations indicating weaker-than-expected daytime heating, heavily favoring a cooler maximum temperature range.

Weather forecasting is a niche but relatively established category in prediction markets. While predicting the daily high for a specific city isn't a major global issue, it is a common proposition for quantitative modelers and weather enthusiasts.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the '62-63°F' option steadily surged from 22.5c to a peak of 50.5c. This was driven by converging weather models showing greater certainty around a deeper marine layer locking daytime highs in this range. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The '60-61°F' option climbed from 13.5c to 29c as some local forecasts indicated SFO might struggle to break out of the low 60s due to stubborn cloud cover. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The '64-65°F' option fluctuated from 14.5c up to 33.5c before dropping back to 18c, reflecting early uncertainty in the forecast that was later resolved by cooler temperature projections.

May 3, 2026 01:28 - 05:48, the price of the '16°C' option surged from 5.75c to 48.15c, while the '18°C' option plummeted from 41.5c to 10c. The '17°C' option briefly spiked to 63c before settling at 39c. The reason is that as rain hit Busan (Gimhae International Airport) on May 3, actual observed temperatures were significantly suppressed (as recorded by Wunderground), prompting the market to rapidly adjust its expectations towards the 16°C and 17°C ranges.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is not a core mainstream concern, but weather forecasting markets are a relatively common niche category in prediction platforms.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 36.5c to 68c, while 18°C plummeted from a peak of 51c to 17c. This occurred because short-term weather models strongly converged on 17°C as the day arrived. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of 18°C steadily climbed from 18.5c to 51c, temporarily becoming the favorite, as some early models trended toward a slightly warmer outcome.